立高食品（300973）：渠道升级加速，稀奶油驱动成长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.07 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a net profit of 171 million yuan, up 26.2% year-on-year [1]. - The growth is driven by strong performance in the cream segment, particularly UHT cream products, which saw nearly 40% growth in Q2 [2]. - The company is expected to maintain revenue growth in the second half of the year due to seasonal demand in baking, new product launches, and expansion in tea beverage channels [5]. Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown for H1 2025 shows: - Frozen baked goods: 1.125 billion yuan (yoy +6.1%) - Cream products: 558 million yuan (yoy +28.7%) - Sauces: 142 million yuan (yoy +36.5%) - Other baking ingredients: 151 million yuan (yoy +63.8%) - Fruit products: 83 million yuan (yoy +7.7%) [2]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 30.4%, with a net margin of 8.1% [4]. Channel Development - Revenue from distribution channels accounted for nearly 50% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [3]. - Supermarket channel revenue grew by approximately 30% due to successful new product launches [3]. - Innovative channels, including catering and new retail, saw a combined revenue growth of about 40% [3]. Profitability and Cost Control - The company has optimized its cost structure, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreasing year-on-year [4]. - The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 320.81 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 19.72% [5]. Future Projections - The company expects to achieve net profits of 320.81 million yuan in 2025, 360.39 million yuan in 2026, and 396.07 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 19.72%, 12.34%, and 9.90% respectively [5][10]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.81x, 22.09x, and 20.10x respectively [5].