Nvidia(US:NVDA) Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-16 02:09Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded due to the consensus reached on the TikTok issue between China and the US, and the US dollar continues to be weak. The A-share market is oscillating and differentiating, with the index attempting to rise but encountering resistance, and the market trading volume slightly shrinking. The futures of corn have broken through the support level and declined. The terminal demand for building materials remains weak, but the steel price continues to oscillate. The supply disturbance of lithium carbonate has temporarily ended, and the market will return to the fundamental logic. [1][2][3][4][57] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump nominee for Fed governor Milan passed the Senate's procedural hurdle. Trump pressured Powell to cut interest rates significantly, which pushed gold prices up. The short - term gold price fluctuations increase, and investors should pay attention to risks. [12][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US will start imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese cars. Milan's nomination as Fed governor is likely to be confirmed. The consensus on the TikTok issue between China and the US has boosted market risk appetite, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term. [15][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The market regulator is conducting an anti - monopoly investigation on Nvidia. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars. CoreWeave has received a $6.3 billion order from Nvidia. The AI industry's capital expenditure continues to expand, and the US stock market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the expectation of interest rate cuts. [19][20][22] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The economic data in August showed a decline. The A - share market is oscillating and differentiating, with high - level characteristics. It is recommended to reduce long positions to cope with the high - level oscillating pattern. [23][25][26] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The economic data in August was worse than expected. The central bank conducted a 280 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market still lacks the momentum to strengthen, and investors should remain cautious. [27][28][30] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean planting rate is 0.12%. NOPA members crushed 189.8 million bushels of soybeans in August. The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased by 1%. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased. The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain oscillating, and investors should pay close attention to the results of China - US talks. [31][32][34][35] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Floods in Malaysia's Sabah state have affected palm oil production. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from September 1 - 15 increased by 2.55% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in August increased by 15.75% month - on - month. The short - term oil market is expected to remain oscillating and slightly stronger. [36][37][38] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in Guangzhou Ruyifang Market has stabilized. The main contract of red date futures has declined significantly. The supply and demand of red dates have not changed significantly recently, and it is recommended to wait and see. [41][42] 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the East China market has remained stable. The supply of coking coal has returned to normal, and the demand is fair. The price of coking coal is expected to continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term. [43][44] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch has continued to decline. The cost support is insufficient, and the profit of starch enterprises is differentiated. The medium - and long - term fundamentals are not favorable for the price difference between corn and starch. [45][46] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - There are rumors that the import corn auction will increase the supply. The futures price of corn has declined significantly. Before the selling pressure is realized, the 11 and 01 contracts are expected to have some support at 2150, but the medium - term view is bearish. [47] 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The infrastructure investment from January to August increased by 2.0% year - on - year. The production of crude steel in August decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. The real estate development investment from January to August decreased by 12.9% year - on - year. The steel price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term. [48][49][52] 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The production of raw coal in August decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. The pit - mouth coal price has been rising recently, but the increase is limited due to the high inventory of power plants. The short - term coal price is expected to be slightly stronger. [54] 2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The daily output of crude steel in August decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The iron ore price is expected to remain oscillating, and the impact of the meeting organized by the Steel Association is limited. [55][56] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zijin Mining's 20,000 - ton lithium carbonate project in Argentina has been put into operation. Sigma Lithium denies the accusations of improper behavior in the Brazilian lithium project. The market will return to the fundamental logic. The price of lithium carbonate may decline after the demand inflection point. [57][58][59] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Dianzhong Non - ferrous's electrolytic plant has produced the first batch of copper sulfate. QB and Collahuasi copper mines plan to be integrated. The copper price is expected to oscillate and be slightly stronger in the short term. [60][61][62] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has seized 321.07 hectares of illegal nickel mines. The short - term focus is the Fed's interest rate meeting. The price of nickel ore is expected to rise in Q4, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips. [63][64] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME0 - 3 lead is at a deep discount. The social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The short - term demand has improved slightly, but the long - term view is slightly bullish. It is recommended to wait and see on the sidelines and consider going long on dips. [65][66] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Peru's zinc concentrate production in July decreased by 4.2% month - on - month. The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a premium. The domestic zinc inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see on the sidelines and pay attention to the mid - term positive spread opportunity. [67][68][69] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US is considering more severe sanctions against Russia. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term. [70][71] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen cargo has risen. The domestic LPG price is expected to follow the overall energy - chemical sector, and the fundamentals do not support a trend - like market. [72][73][74] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The refinery and social inventories of asphalt have decreased. The asphalt futures price is expected to remain weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. [76][77] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The downstream demand of polyester is weak. The PX price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to try the positive spread between November and January contracts on dips. [78][79][80] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the basis has weakened. The terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the PTA price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term. [81][82][83] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories has increased slightly. An East China polyester bottle chip plant has shut down. The demand for bottle chips is turning to the off - season, and the processing fee is difficult to improve. [85][86][87] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has decreased. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The caustic soda spot price is expected to turn down, but the downward space is limited. [88][89][90] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp has shown mixed trends. The pulp market is expected to oscillate and weaken due to poor fundamentals. [91][92] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea production load has decreased. The domestic demand is weak, and the urea price is expected to continue to decline in the medium term. The potential rebound driver depends on the release of off - season storage demand and the improvement of market sentiment. [93][94] 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price has oscillated and increased. The fundamentals are under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited due to low valuation. [95] 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has some resilience. The short - term accumulation pressure has been relieved, but the long - term inventory contradiction needs to be resolved. [96][97] 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 174.71 million tons. The soda ash price is expected to be sold short on rallies, and investors should pay attention to supply disturbances. [98][99] 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market has changed slightly. The spot market is in the off - season, and the 01 contract premium is high. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601. [100][101] 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The SCFIS index shows that the European line index has declined, and the US West index has increased. The freight rate may stop falling in mid - October, and investors can hold short positions in the 10 - contract and consider going long on the 12 - contract if it falls to around 1500 points. [103][104]