Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-16 02:57Report Overview - Report Title: Tin Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Tin prices have strengthened recently due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which have boosted the valuation of the entire non - ferrous metals sector. In the short term, as investors' expectations for the Fed's September and October interest - rate decisions are relatively unified, the impact of monetary policy on tin prices may decrease. The short - term pattern of tight supply in the fundamentals is unlikely to change in September, and the weak demand has little impact on prices for now. Tin prices are likely to continue to fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton [4]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - Price Volatility: The latest closing price of tin is 273,960 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 13.17%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 23.0% [3]. - Risk Management Suggestions: - Inventory Management: For those with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main - contract futures at around 275,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate [3]. - Raw Material Management: For those with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main - contract futures at around 230,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [3]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - Likely Positive Factors: Sino - US tariff policy relaxation, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's复产 falling short of expectations [5]. - Likely Negative Factors: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving from an expansion to a contraction cycle [6]. 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - Futures Data: - The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, continuous - one, and continuous - three contracts are 273,960 yuan/ton, 273,960 yuan/ton, and 273,950 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME Tin 3M price is 34,680 US dollars/ton, down 275 US dollars (- 0.79%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.84, up 0.03 (0.38%) [7]. - Spot Data: - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 273,300 yuan/ton, up 3,800 yuan (1.41%) week - on - week. The 1 tin premium is 100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 50%) week - on - week. Other spot prices such as tin concentrates and solder bars also showed increases [11]. 3.4 Tin Import and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 17,852.83 yuan/ton, down 49.13 yuan (- 0.27%) daily. The 40% and 60% tin ore processing fees are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [13]. 3.5 Tin Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory: The total tin warehouse receipt quantity is 7,402 tons, up 76 tons (1.04%) daily. The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 5,135 tons, up 56 tons (1.1%), and in Shanghai is 1,446 tons, up 20 tons (1.4%) [15]. - LME Tin Inventory: The total LME tin inventory is 2,620 tons, up 235 tons (9.85%) [15].