Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-16 02:56Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: Nanhua Metal Daily: Gold Hits New High, Focus on Fed FOMC [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - On Monday, precious metal prices continued to rise due to the optimism ahead of the Fed's September FOMC meeting, including expectations of rate cuts and a pause in balance - sheet reduction, as well as uncertainty over US precious - metal tariff policies. Major surrounding assets rose, and the dollar fell. COMEX Gold 2512 contract closed at $3,719.5 per ounce, up 0.9%; Comex Silver 2512 contract closed at $42.19 per ounce, up 0.84%. SHFE Gold 2510 contract closed at 831.6 yuan per gram, up 0.1%; SHFE Silver 2510 contract closed at 10,017 yuan per kilogram, up 0.88% [2] - The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook. Trump - nominated Fed Governor nominee Milan's appointment was confirmed and can attend this week's FOMC meeting. China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue [2] Group 3: Rate - Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Traders expect the Fed to cut rates three times this year, with a 25 - basis - point cut likely in September. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 95.9%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 4.1% [3] - The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by October is 23.1%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 73.8%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 3.1%. By December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 1.9%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 27.2%, a 75 - basis - point cut is 68.1%, and a 100 - basis - point cut is 2.9% [3] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.01 tons to 976.81 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15,069.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 3.1 tons to 1,243.5 tons; SGX silver inventory decreased by 35.3 tons to 1,248.3 tons this week [3] Group 4: This Week's Focus - Light data this week, mainly pay attention to US retail sales data on Tuesday night. Focus on the Fed's FOMC announcement of the interest - rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00 on Thursday; Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30. Also, the Bank of England will announce its interest - rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00 on Thursday. The Bank of Japan will announce its interest - rate decision on Friday. Trump will visit the UK on a state visit [3] Group 5: Nanhua's View - Medium - to long - term outlook is likely bullish. Short - term, London gold and silver weekly lines continue to close with positive candles, indicating that the strong pattern is expected to continue. London gold support is at 3,600, strong support at 3,500, resistance at 3,700, then 3,800. For London silver, focus on the support at the 40 - integer mark, with the upper target raised to the 44 - 45 area. Maintain the idea of buying on dips, and hold existing long positions cautiously [3] Group 6: Precious Metal Price Table - SHFE Gold Main - continuous: 831.6 yuan per gram, down 2.62 yuan, down 0.31% - SGX Gold TD: 828.03 yuan per gram, down 2.31 yuan, down 0.28% - CME Gold Main: $3,719.5 per ounce, up $38.8, up 1.05% - SHFE Silver Main - continuous: 10,017 yuan per kilogram, down 18 yuan, down 0.18% - SGX Silver TD: 9,994 yuan per kilogram, down 40 yuan, down 0.4% - CME Silver Main: $43.19 per ounce, up $0.51, up 1.19% - SHFE - TD Gold: 3.57 yuan per gram, down 0.31 yuan, down 7.99% - SHFE - TD Silver: 23 yuan per kilogram, up 22 yuan, down 96.15% - CME Gold - Silver Ratio: 86.1195, down 0.12, down 0.14% [5] Group 7: Inventory and Position Table - SHFE Gold inventory: 53,226 kilograms, up 276 kilograms, up 0.52% - CME Gold inventory: 1,218.6641 tons, up 8.2872 tons, up 0.68% - SHFE Gold position: 104,349 lots, down 4,918 lots, down 4.5% - SPDR Gold position: 976.81 tons, up 2.01 tons, up 0.21% - SHFE Silver inventory: 1,243.481 tons, down 3.088 tons, down 0.25% - CME Silver inventory: 16,411.6893 tons, up 6.9809 tons, up 0.04% - SGX Silver inventory: 1,248.255 tons, down 35.355 tons, down 2.75% - SHFE Silver position: 204,407 lots, down 14,921 lots, down 6.8% - SLV Silver position: 15,069.602597 tons, down 67.772 tons, down 0.45% [15][17] Group 8: Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - US Dollar Index: 97.3236, down 0.2914, down 0.3% - USD/CNY: 7.1173, down 0.0027, down 0.04% - Dow Jones Industrial Average: 45,883.45 points, up 49.23 points, up 0.11% - WTI Crude Oil Spot: $63.3 per barrel, up $0.61, up 0.97% - LmeS Copper 03: $10,189 per ton, up $124.5, up 1.24% - 10 - Year US Treasury Yield: 4.05%, down 0.01%, down 0.25% - 10 - Year US Real Interest Rate: 1.68%, down 0.02%, down 1.18% - 10 - 2 Year US Treasury Yield Spread: 0.51%, up 0.01%, up 2% [21]