甘源食品（002991）：收入降幅环比收窄，利润仍有承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][17]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.34% year-on-year in H1 2025, with a net profit decline of 55.20% [1]. - The revenue drop has narrowed quarter-on-quarter, indicating an improvement in operational conditions [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 53.13 million yuan, accounting for 71.22% of its net profit in H1 2025 [1]. - The company has launched four new flavors of nut products, which are expected to meet market demand [4]. Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 9.45 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.75 billion yuan [1]. - The revenue from major product categories showed a decline, primarily due to a decrease in sales volume [1]. - The company reported a gross margin of 32.79% and a net margin of 4.90% in Q2 2025, both showing a year-on-year decline [3]. Segment Performance - The company’s revenue from different regions in H1 2025 was as follows: East China 2.85 billion yuan, Southwest 1.22 billion yuan, and overseas 0.22 billion yuan, with overseas revenue growing significantly by 163% [2]. - E-commerce business showed a revenue increase of 12% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 6 percentage points [2]. Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 22.65 billion yuan, 25.55 billion yuan, and 28.17 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 0%, 13%, and 10% respectively [4]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 2.54 billion yuan, 3.46 billion yuan, and 3.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 33% in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years [4]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the food and beverage sector, specifically in the snack food category [6]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 5.36 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21X for 2025 [5][6].