南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20250916

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market is transitioning from a stage of expected supply looseness to an actual one, with prices mainly under pressure [2]. - Mid - and downstream players are waiting for a large supply of new - season grains and are bargaining for lower prices, resulting in low acquisition enthusiasm and light current spot trading [2]. - The soybean No.1 futures reflect the expectation of loose supply and maintain a bearish trend [2]. - Sino - US trade negotiations are ongoing, and future import rhythms will affect the demand for domestic soybeans [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Risk Strategies - Inventory Management for Sellers: For those with long spot positions, such as planting entities with high demand for selling new soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 soybean No.1 futures at a hedging ratio of 30% when the price is between 4000 - 4050 to lock in planting profits. Also, sellers can sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call options at a hedging ratio of 30% with a holding price range of 40 - 50 to increase the selling price [2]. - Procurement Management for Buyers: For those with short spot positions worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, since the probability of price decline is high, they should mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. They can go long on A2603 and A2605 contracts and wait for the price guidance in autumn [2]. 3.2. Market Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: The absence of a single - way auction notice from Sinograin this week may reduce or suspend auctions, which is beneficial for alleviating pressure on the spot market. In addition, the consumer market is gradually recovering in September, and there is an expectation of a rebound in edible demand [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: The Northeast production area is about to enter the peak harvest period. The current new - season harvest and listing of domestic soybeans have led to a large supply in the short term, putting significant pressure on prices. Moreover, the procurement side is inactive, and prices may seek a lower balance under the mindset of bargaining for low prices [3]. - Price Changes: From September 12 to September 15, 2025, the closing prices of all soybean No.1 contracts declined. For example, the closing price of soybean No.1 11 decreased from 3959 to 3939, a drop of 20 or 0.51%; the closing price of soybean No.1 09 decreased from 4081 to 4001, a drop of 80 or 1.96% [3].