Kouzijiao(SH:603589) Guotou Securities·2025-09-16 05:27Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Buy-A, with a target price of 41.79 CNY for the next six months [4][5]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 2.531 billion CNY, down 20.07% year-on-year, and a net profit of 715 million CNY, down 24.63% year-on-year [1][2]. - The high-end liquor segment is under pressure, while the low-end liquor segment showed slight growth, helping to offset the decline in high-end sales [2][3]. - The company is focusing on market, structural, and brand upgrades, while also enhancing digital marketing and e-commerce efforts to strengthen its core market and cultivate external growth [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 721 million CNY, a decrease of 48.48% year-on-year, and a net profit of 105 million CNY, down 70.91% year-on-year [1][3]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 65.18%, a decrease of 9.86 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced revenue from high-end liquor and an increase in low-margin products [3]. - The company’s net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 14.51%, down 11.18 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are -21.0%, +4.3%, and +7.0%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be -28.6%, +7.2%, and +7.3% [4][10]. - The average valuation for comparable companies suggests a PE ratio of 21.22x for 2025 [4][9].