Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-16 09:17Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 16, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The log market is relatively independent of market sentiment. With no obvious fundamental contradictions, the price volatility is limited, and the market is expected to remain range - bound [7] - The log price is predicted to be in the range of 780 - 830 yuan per cubic meter, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [3] Summary by Directory Log Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range of logs is predicted to be 780 - 830 yuan per cubic meter, and the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, with a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [3] - For inventory management, when log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, companies can short log futures (lg2511) at 820 - 830 yuan per cubic meter with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, companies can buy log futures (lg2511) at 780 - 800 yuan per cubic meter with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3] Market Conditions Disk - The lg2511 contract closed at 806.5 (+2), with a decrease in positions of 1130 [6] Spot - According to MULIAN data, the prices of 3.9 - meter and 5.9 - meter large A logs in Rizhao increased [7] Valuation - The warehouse receipt cost is about 817 yuan per cubic meter in the Yangtze River Delta and 822 yuan per cubic meter in Shandong [7] Core Contradictions - The overall commodity sentiment strengthened. The opening of the lg2511 contract was affected by short - covering, and the log market was relatively independent, with limited price volatility expected to be mainly range - bound [7] Spot and Basis - The report provides detailed spot prices, price changes, and basis calculations for different specifications of logs at various ports on September 16, 2025 [9] Log Data Overview Supply - The radiation pine import volume in July 2025 was 1.4 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 210 million cubic meters from the previous period but a year - on - year increase of 6.1% [10] Inventory - The national port inventory on September 12, 2025, was 3.02 billion cubic meters, an increase of 80 million cubic meters from the previous period but a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [10] - The port inventory in Shandong was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [10] - The port inventory in Jiangsu was 917,792 cubic meters, an increase of 2,392 cubic meters from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [10] Demand - The average daily log outbound volume at ports on September 12, 2025, was 62.9 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.7 million cubic meters from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [10] - The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 34.4 million cubic meters, an increase of 1 million cubic meters from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 25.6% [10] - The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 22.2 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.6 million cubic meters from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 24.2% [10] Profit - The radiation pine import profit on September 12, 2025, was - 67 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous period [10] - The spruce import profit was - 88 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous period [10] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Traders may jointly support prices due to continuous import losses [11] - The overall commodity sentiment has warmed up (this has been disproven) [11] - The willingness to take delivery increases when the discount is sufficient (not currently the case) [11] - The inventory is relatively low [11] Bearish Factors - The peak season is not prosperous [11] - The addition of new delivery warehouses reduces the buyer's willingness to take delivery [11] Other Data - The CFR outer - disk quotation on September 12, 2025, was 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 2 US dollars and 3.4% from the previous period [12]