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老板电器(002508):核心主业保持强韧性,盈利能力有所提升

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" [2][8] Core Views - The company's core business remains resilient, with an increase in profitability despite a slight decline in revenue [2][8] - The company reported a revenue of 4.61 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 710 million yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year [2][8] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, and a net profit of 370 million yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 11,213 million yuan in 2024 to 12,843 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1,577 million yuan in 2024 to 1,870 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 5.7% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.67 yuan in 2024 to 1.98 yuan in 2027 [4] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a leading market position in key product categories, with market shares in range hoods, gas stoves, dishwashers, and integrated machines ranking first or third [8] - The company benefits from national subsidy policies, which support demand recovery despite the challenging real estate market [8] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved to 50.4% in H1 2025, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a better product mix and higher sales of high-margin products [8] - The net profit margin reached 14.7% in Q2 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to stable expense management and increased gross margins [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while short-term demand is pressured by the real estate market, the company is well-positioned for medium to long-term growth through diversified product development [8] - The target price is set at 25.4 yuan, indicating potential upside from the current price of 19.47 yuan [4][8]