Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-16 09:22Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The overall supply of asphalt is increasing, while the demand cannot be effectively released due to rainfall and capital shortages. The inventory structure has improved, with stable factory inventories and declining social inventories. The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns about potential US military action against Venezuela. In the short - term, the peak season has no unexpected performance, but after the crude oil stabilizes, consider a long - position allocation. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be only one last chance for the asphalt futures to rise this year as the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season after the negative factors of crude oil are digested [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3400 - 3750. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 17.18%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 24.55% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories, to prevent losses from inventory price drops, they can short 25% of the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3650 - 3750 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell 20% of the bu2512C3500 call options at 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs and lock in the selling price if the price rises [2]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventories, to prevent cost increases from price hikes, they can buy 50% of the bu2512 asphalt futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell 20% of the bu2512C3500 put options at 25 - 35 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Supply is increasing, but demand is restricted by rainfall and capital shortages. The inventory structure is improving, with stable factory inventories and declining social inventories. The crack spread remains high due to geopolitical concerns. In the short - term, the peak season is affected by weather, and the cost of crude oil is decreasing. In the medium - to - long - term, demand is expected to improve, and there may be one last chance for the asphalt futures to rise this year. The South China region is the price trough due to restrictions on crude oil quotas and consumption tax [3]. 3.4利多解读 No relevant content provided. 3.5利空解读 - Positive Factors: Low factory inventory pressure, seasonal peak demand, low operating rates with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of capacity reduction [7]. - Negative Factors: Increased arrivals of Venezuelan crude oil, short - term demand drag from the rainy season in the South, slower social inventory reduction and weakening basis, and potential increase in operating rates due to the consumption tax reform in Shandong [7][8]. 3.6 Price and Basis Data - Spot Prices: On September 16, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3520 yuan/ton, 3640 yuan/ton, 3660 yuan/ton, and 3490 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - Basis: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract increased by 43 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [8]. - Crack Spread: The crack spread of Shandong spot and the futures main contract against Brent crude oil decreased compared to the previous week [8]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - The report presents the seasonal data of the 09 - contract basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, and Northeast China, as well as the seasonal data of the 06 - 09 and 09 - 12 futures month - spreads [9][10][11]. 3.8 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Data - The report shows the seasonal data of domestic asphalt factory and social inventory rates, as well as the total warehouse receipt quantities of asphalt in warehouses and factories [13][14].