泸州老窖（000568）：主业营收减少，并伴随结构下沉

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Accumulate" rating for the company [5][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.454 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.65 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year [5][8] - The main business revenue decreased, accompanied by a downward shift in product structure, with liquor revenue at 16.397 billion yuan, a decline of 2.62% year-on-year [5][8] - The company experienced a significant increase in costs, with raw material costs rising by 10.07%, labor costs by 14.53%, and manufacturing costs by 7.32% [8] - The gross profit margin for the main business declined by 1.47 percentage points to 87.18%, with the gross margin for mid-to-high-end liquor decreasing by 1.23 percentage points to 91.03% [8] - The company reduced advertising expenses significantly by 20.31% while increasing promotional spending by 11.2% [8] - The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.73 yuan, 9.13 yuan, and 9.71 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.57, 13.93, and 13.1 [8][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 30.416 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of -2.50% [10] - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 12.851 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -4.61% [10] - The earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 8.73 yuan [10] Cost Structure - The main business costs increased significantly, with raw material costs up 10.07%, labor costs up 14.53%, and manufacturing costs up 7.32% [8] - The gross profit margin for the main business decreased to 87.18% [8] Market Position - The company’s liquor revenue showed a decline, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and consumer preferences [5][8] - The sales growth for mid-to-high-end liquor was notably different from revenue growth, suggesting a structural shift in sales [8]