KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Huachuang Securities·2025-09-16 11:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519) with a target price of 2600 CNY [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in sales velocity and market sentiment for Kweichow Moutai, especially as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, leading to a recovery in distributor confidence [2]. - The company is focusing on long-term strategies to adapt to market demands and enhance its operational efficiency through three key transformations [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a strong market presence and adapting to consumer needs, which is expected to drive sales growth in the upcoming months [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kweichow Moutai has a total share capital of 125,227.02 million shares and a total market value of 189.73 billion CNY [2]. - The company has a low debt-to-asset ratio of 14.75% and a net asset value per share of 189.98 CNY [2]. Sales Performance - Sales of Moutai liquor showed a month-on-month increase of approximately 15% to 35% in August, with expectations for double-digit year-on-year growth in September [2]. - The report attributes this growth to improved demand, effective management strategies, and enhanced distributor confidence [2]. Financial Projections - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 174.14 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.7% [6]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is 86.23 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 15.4% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 68.86 CNY in 2024, with a gradual increase to 80.18 CNY by 2027 [6]. Market Strategy - Kweichow Moutai is committed to a long-term approach, focusing on consumer-centric marketing and operational transformations to enhance competitiveness [2]. - The company is also working on brand rejuvenation and international market expansion, with overseas revenue increasing by 31.3% in the first half of the year [2]. Value Management - The report discusses the implementation of a systematic value management approach, including a three-year dividend plan with a minimum payout ratio of 75% [2]. - The company is planning a new round of share buybacks and encouraging major shareholders to increase their holdings, reflecting confidence in future growth [2].