SAILUN GROUP(SH:601058) Great Wall Securities·2025-09-16 12:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][11]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a slight performance pressure due to rising raw material costs, but there is optimism regarding its capacity expansion and ramp-up [1][11]. - The company has achieved historical highs in tire production and sales, although its performance has been impacted by increased raw material costs [2]. - The company is actively expanding its global footprint, with significant revenue growth from overseas operations [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025E at 37,040 million, 2026E at 42,113 million, and 2027E at 45,508 million, with growth rates of 16.5%, 13.7%, and 8.1% respectively [11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4,158 million in 2025E, 5,132 million in 2026E, and 6,144 million in 2027E, with growth rates of 2.3%, 23.4%, and 19.7% respectively [11]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.26 in 2025E, 1.56 in 2026E, and 1.87 in 2027E [11]. Operational Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported tire product revenue of 173.92 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.40%, with a gross margin of 24.58%, down 4.38 percentage points [2]. - The company produced 40.60 million tires in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.66%, while sales volume reached 39.14 million, up 13.32% [2]. - The average price of self-produced tires increased by 5.85% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025 [2]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The prices of key raw materials such as natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and carbon black have shown a high-level decline, although overall prices remain above last year's levels [2]. - The comprehensive procurement price of the main raw materials increased by 0.82% year-on-year but decreased by 4.64% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2025 [2]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company generated a net cash flow from operating activities of 8.84 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 179.10% [8]. - The ending cash and cash equivalents balance was 56.22 billion, up 10.54% year-on-year [8]. - Accounts receivable increased by 35.02% year-on-year, while inventory rose by 29.29% [8]. Global Expansion and New Capacity - The company reported overseas revenue of 134.13 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.72% [9]. - New capacity projects include a planned investment of 29,148 million USD in Egypt for a tire production project and an investment of 170,093 million CNY for the expansion of an existing facility [10].