Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-17 06:42Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The copper price's rise and fall on Tuesday met expectations. The rise was due to the decline of the US dollar index, but the copper's fundamentals don't support further strengthening, and the macro - expectation remains unchanged in the short term. High - level oscillation may be the main trend for copper in the next few trading days [4] Summary by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 80,880 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 8.40%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 6.3% [3] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [3] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3] Factors Affecting Copper Price Bullish Factors - The US reaches a tariff agreement with other countries; increased expectations of interest - rate cuts lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; the lower support level rises [9] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies; global demand decreases due to tariff policies; the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy causes an extremely high COMEX inventory [6][7] Copper Futures Market Data - The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 80,880 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract is 80,870 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan (- 0.09%), and the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract is 80,880 yuan/ton with no change. The LME Copper 3M is 10,117 US dollars/ton, down 72 US dollars (- 0.71%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.07, up 0.03 (0.37%) [8] Copper Spot Market Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 81,120 yuan/ton, 81,160 yuan/ton, 81,120 yuan/ton, and 81,320 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 180 yuan (0.22%), 200 yuan (0.25%), 200 yuan (0.25%), and 250 yuan (0.31%) respectively. The Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous spot premium/discounts are 75 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 70 yuan/ton, and 115 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 5 yuan (- 6.25%), - 40 yuan (- 57.14%), - 25 yuan (- 26.32%), and - 10 yuan (- 8%) respectively [13] Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread - The current scrap - to - refined spread (tax - included) is 2,085.21 yuan/ton, up 21.38 yuan (1.04%); the reasonable scrap - to - refined spread (tax - included) is 1,509.15 yuan/ton, down 0.85 yuan (- 0.06%); the price advantage (tax - included) is 576.06 yuan/ton, up 22.23 yuan (4.01%). The current scrap - to - refined spread (tax - excluded) is 6,815 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (0.22%); the reasonable scrap - to - refined spread (tax - excluded) is 6,315.5 yuan/ton, down 5.9 yuan (- 0.09%); the price advantage (tax - excluded) is 499.5 yuan/ton, up 20.9 yuan (4.37%) [18] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts total 33,692 tons, up 3,049 tons (9.95%); International Copper warehouse receipts total 11,794 tons, up 321 tons (2.8%); Shanghai's Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 3,973 tons, up 2,315 tons (139.63%); the bonded total of Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts is 0 tons, down 100%; the tax - paid total of Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts is 33,692 tons, up 3,049 tons (9.95%) [22] - LME copper inventory totals 150,950 tons, down 1,675 tons (- 1.1%); COMEX copper inventory totals 312,868 tons, up 5,172 tons (1.68%) [24][25] Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 228.62 yuan/ton, down 90.09 yuan (65.03%); the copper concentrate TC is - 41.4 US dollars/ton, with no change [26]