碳酸锂日评：低位震荡-20250917

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures opened high and closed low. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the discount even widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, and the 3C shipments were average. The planned production of energy storage batteries increased in September. The registered warehouse inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. The expected supply contraction is weakening as the resumption of lithium mines is progressing actively. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Investors should be vigilant about the downstream restocking point [1]. - The trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Contract Closing Prices: On September 16, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 73060 yuan/ton, 73180 yuan/ton, 73340 yuan/ton, and 73340 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 540 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active contract was 500267 hands (+17477), and the open interest was 300437 hands (-9009) [1]. - Inventory: The inventory was 38824 tons (-139 tons) [1]. - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 120 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 160 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - Basis: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 330 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - Lithium Ore Prices: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 853 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1075 yuan/ton (-82.5 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 1815 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 6090 yuan/ton (+115 yuan/ton), and the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 7065 yuan/ton (-135 yuan/ton) [1]. - Lithium Compound Prices: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 72850 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 70600 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.3 US dollars/kg (unchanged), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained/domestic) was 74050 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized/domestic) was 79020 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. - Other Lithium - Related Product Prices: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) was 56650 yuan/ton (+150 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 81250 yuan/ton (+600 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 79125 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 74675 yuan/ton (+225 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 93800 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 119650 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114375 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 118325 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 146650 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 33470 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy - storage type) was 32075 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) was 29300 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton), and the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 231500 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton) [1]. - Cobalt - Related Product Prices: The average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%/imported) was 273000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was 57400 yuan/ton (+725 yuan/ton), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%/domestic) was 226500 yuan/ton (+1500 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.3 Inventory Data - SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The inventory of smelters was 36213 tons (-3262 tons), the inventory of downstream sectors was 58279 tons (+3072 tons), the inventory of other sectors was 44020 tons (-1390 tons), and the total inventory was 138512 tons (-1580 tons) [1]. 3.4 Company News - On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate in Lanke Lithium Industry was upgraded through technological innovation, and the current capacity has been increased to 40,000 tons per year. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high - quality industrial development [1].