Lier Chemical (SZ:002258) Great Wall Securities·2025-09-17 07:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][19]. Core Views - The company has shown significant year-on-year growth in its performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue increasing by 35.36% and net profit rising by 191.21% [1][2]. - The agricultural chemicals industry is expected to see a recovery in market conditions, with some product prices beginning to rebound, particularly for glyphosate, which is anticipated to drive overall industry improvement [2][11]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 7,851 million yuan, with a decline of 22.5% year-on-year. However, a gradual recovery is expected with revenues of 7,563 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 3.4% [1][11]. - Net Profit: The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 604 million yuan, with a significant drop of 66.7% year-on-year. A strong recovery is forecasted for 2025, with net profit expected to reach 499 million yuan, a growth of 131.9% [1][11]. - EPS: The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.75 yuan for 2023, decreasing to 0.27 yuan in 2024, but recovering to 0.62 yuan in 2025 [1][11]. - P/E Ratio: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 16.2 in 2023, increasing to 45.4 in 2024, and then decreasing to 19.6 in 2025 [1][11]. Product Performance Summary - The company reported substantial revenue growth in various product segments for the first half of 2025, with revenues from pesticide raw materials, formulations, intermediates, and chemical materials reaching 27.57 billion yuan, 9.60 billion yuan, 4.10 billion yuan, and 1.56 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 62.67%, 12.49%, 25.03%, and 95.21% [2][3]. - The gross margins for pesticide raw materials and formulations were reported at 17.57% and 20.54%, showing slight improvements year-on-year [2][3]. Market Outlook - The overall pesticide market is experiencing a divergence, with price increases in major products expected to enhance the industry's overall outlook. Despite current prices being at a relative low, there are signs of recovery in certain segments [4][9]. - The company is positioned as a leading producer of glyphosate and is expanding its production capacity, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge in the market [10][11].