Hoshine Silicon(SH:603260) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-09-17 09:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in the silicon industry chain and is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic sector [4] - The company has an industrial silicon capacity of 1.22 million tons/year and an organic silicon capacity of 1.73 million tons/year, with additional polysilicon and photovoltaic module capacities under development [4] - Due to lower-than-expected product profitability recovery, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 611 million, 2.286 billion, and 2.991 billion yuan respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 99.0, 26.5, and 20.2 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 26.584 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4%, but is expected to decline by 18.5% in 2025 [7] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 2.623 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 49.1% [7] - The gross margin is expected to be 20.1% in 2023, decreasing to 15.2% in 2025, before recovering to 21.5% by 2027 [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to drop to 1.9% in 2025, with a recovery to 8.3% by 2027 [7] Industry Insights - The average market price of polysilicon has increased to 47,600 yuan/ton, a 58% rise from the June low, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for the industry [5] - Industrial silicon and organic silicon prices are currently at the bottom of the cycle, with limited downside potential due to strong cost support [5] - The company is actively extending its industrial chain into silicon carbide materials, which are expected to contribute significantly to future performance [6]