森麒麟（002984）：公司1H25业绩略有承压，看好摩洛哥工厂年内逐步放量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][19]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 faced slight pressure due to a decline in tire sales and rising raw material prices. However, the Moroccan factory is expected to gradually ramp up production within the year, contributing positively to future profits [2][9][11]. - The company has a strong market presence in the high-end tire segment in the U.S. and Europe, with significant market shares for its brands, which is anticipated to enhance its competitive edge [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue Projections: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 98.07 billion, 120.41 billion, and 131.70 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 22.8%, and 9.4% [11]. - Net Profit Projections: Expected net profits for the same years are 17.23 billion, 23.48 billion, and 27.64 billion yuan, with a notable decline of 21.2% in 2025 followed by a recovery of 36.3% in 2026 and 17.7% in 2027 [11]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.66 yuan, 2.27 yuan, and 2.67 yuan respectively [11]. - Valuation Ratios: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 12, 9, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [11]. Production and Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported tire production of 15.57 million units, a decrease of 3.21% year-on-year, while tire sales were 14.87 million units, down 1.5% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 24.47%, reflecting a decline of 8.71 percentage points compared to the previous year [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically positioned with a global production capacity across China, Thailand, and Morocco, which helps mitigate geopolitical risks and enhances its competitive stance in the global market [9]. - The ongoing "833plus" strategy aims to establish eight digital smart manufacturing bases globally, further strengthening the company's market position and operational efficiency [9].