Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous revenue pressure, but profitability remains stable, with a gross margin increase of 0.3 percentage points to 59.04% due to a higher proportion of revenue from high-margin brands [6] - The company is implementing strict sales controls to manage inventory levels, which has led to a significant decline in revenue across its brands, particularly a 45% decrease in revenue from its main brand, Zhenjiu [7] - The introduction of a new flagship product, "Dazhen," is expected to create a new growth curve for the company, targeting a balance between quality and price [7] - The company is innovating its distribution channels through the "Wanshang Alliance" model, which aims to enhance direct access to consumers while controlling supply quotas to prevent price erosion [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, total revenue was 2.497 billion yuan, a decrease of 40% year-on-year, while net profit was 575 million yuan, down 24% year-on-year [5] - The company's sales and management expense ratios increased to 22.24% and 9.76%, respectively, due to rising unit costs from reduced revenue [6] Brand Performance - Revenue from Zhenjiu decreased by 45% to 1.492 billion yuan, while Li Du's revenue fell by 9% to 611 million yuan, reflecting a focus on mid-range products and key consumption scenarios [7] - Other brands, such as Xiangjiao and Kaikouxiao, also saw significant revenue declines of 39% and 64%, respectively, due to market conditions [7] Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.35, 0.41, and 0.48 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26, 22, and 19 times [10] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 5.29 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25.1% [12]
珍酒李渡(06979):公司事件点评报告:严控节奏释放压力,产品渠道双轮驱动