CATL(SZ:300750) Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-18 06:29Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with the demand growth rate relatively faster, and the continuous inventory reduction supports the price. The supply-side resumption expectation and the demand-side "Golden September and Silver October" stocking rhythm form the main line of the long-short game. In the next 1-2 weeks, if the downstream pre-holiday replenishment demand is accelerated, the price support at the current position is still obvious, but it is necessary to be vigilant that the high supply elasticity limits the rebound height [3]. - In the short term, both supply and demand are increasing, but the demand growth is faster, and the inventory reduction supports the price. However, the uncertainty of the resumption of production makes the market sentiment cautious. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the next week, with a small upward space, but it may encounter resistance at high levels, so it will be volatile and strong, but the increase is limited [31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - Futures Market Data: On September 17, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 73,640 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous trading day; the basis narrowed to -540 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased to 294,624 lots, and the trading volume shrank significantly by 31.26% to 343,863 lots [1]. - Supply and Demand and Inventory: The supply-side capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 66.41%, but the market focus shifted to the resumption expectation. If Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine resumes production as scheduled in November, it may increase the supply pressure. The demand side showed that the prices of downstream ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, and the cell prices also generally strengthened, but the short-term contradiction was the weak terminal demand. The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased continuously, and the destocking in the spot market continued [2]. - Market Summary: The current lithium carbonate market has a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with the demand growth rate relatively faster. The continuous inventory reduction supports the price. The supply-side resumption expectation and the demand-side "Golden September and Silver October" stocking rhythm form the main line of the long-short game [3]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - Futures and Spot Prices: On September 17, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased from 73,180 yuan/ton to 73,640 yuan/ton, with a 0.63% increase. The basis strengthened from -1,080 to -540. The battery-grade lithium carbonate market price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 73,100 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase [5]. - Other Product Prices: The prices of related products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also showed slight increases, while the open interest of the main contract decreased by 1.93%, and the trading volume decreased significantly by 31.26% [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotes: On September 17, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,116 yuan/ton, up 281 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot transaction price continued to fluctuate upward, and the futures price continued to fluctuate. The downstream material enterprises still held a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the overall market trading activity was not high [6]. - Downstream Consumption: According to the Passenger Car Association data, from September 1 to 7, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 3% year-on-year, but the wholesale increased by 5%. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 59.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year increased by 25% year-on-year [7]. - Industry News: On September 9, Ningde Times held a "Jianxiawo lithium mine resumption work meeting" to discuss the resumption work, aiming to complete the resumption in November, but the resumption is still uncertain [8]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those of lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., with data sources from SMM, Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, iFinD, and the R & D department of Tonghui Futures [9][12][13]