Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-18 08:02Report Information - Report Name: Oil Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Chen [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Certificate Number: Z0022868 [1] - Transaction Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Current domestic oil market has limited positive factors, mainly driven by uncertainties in origin supply, US biodiesel policy, and international trade relations [3] - Palm oil in Malaysia entered the production - reduction season early due to drought, and inventory pressure is expected to ease; Indonesia's B40 policy and slow production recovery limit export growth; India's consumption season supports global palm oil consumption [3] - US biodiesel policy supports US soybean crushing, and the tightened US soybean balance sheet supports soybean prices. Sino - US trade relations may lead to a soybean import gap in Q4 [3] - For rapeseed oil, recent origin weather has little impact, and China - Canada relations are a focus. Importing directly and opening the Australian rapeseed import window may make up for the Canadian gap [3] - Short - term market may fluctuate widely. Strategies should be based on a volatile outlook, not recommended to short. Consider P1 - 5 positive spread opportunities and the possibility of Y01 - P01 spread narrowing [3] Key Points by Content Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Forecast: Monthly price ranges are 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton for soybean oil, 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton for rapeseed oil, and 9200 - 9900 yuan/ton for palm oil. Current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 11.5%, 10.4%, and 20.2% respectively, with 3 - year historical percentiles of 2.4%, 0.1%, and 24.1% [2] - Hedging Strategies: Traders with high oil inventory can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 25% ratio at 8900 - 9000 yuan/ton; refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% ratio at 8200 - 8500 yuan/ton; oil mills worried about high - cost inventory can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% ratio at 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - Leveraging Factors: Floods in Sabah may reduce Malaysian palm oil production; SPPOMA data shows a decline in production; China's Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may boost downstream demand [6] - Restraining Factors: USDA's higher - than - expected US soybean yield eases supply pressure; Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy due to opposition from some state senators; High domestic oil inventory restricts price increase [6][7] Price Data - Palm Oil: Palm oil 01 is at 9424 yuan/ton (-0.61%), 05 at 9212 yuan/ton (-0.43%), 09 at 8888 yuan/ton (-0.13%); BMD palm oil main contract is at 4427 ringgit/ton (-1.07%); Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 9210 yuan/ton (-170) [7][9] - Soybean Oil: Soybean oil 01 is at 8366 yuan/ton (0%), 05 at 8098 yuan/ton (0%), 09 at 8048 yuan/ton (0%); CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 51.82 cents/pound (-2.58%); Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8540 yuan/ton (+30) [15][16] - Rapeseed Oil: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9999 yuan/ton (0), 05 at 9533 yuan/ton (0), 09 at 9456 yuan/ton (0); ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 624.6 Canadian dollars/ton (-3.5); East China rapeseed oil spot is at 10110 yuan/ton (+50) [18]