Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-09-18 11:34Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - On September 18, 2025, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25BP to 4%-4.25%, the first rate cut in 2025. The 9 - month rate cut was "expected", with market expectations of a rate cut in September remaining high. The Fed showed restraint, and Powell's stance was "neutral - hawkish". The rate cut was a "risk - management" one, denying an economic recession. The Fed is expected to cut rates by another 50BP this year. Overseas asset volatility will decline in the short - term, and the stock - bond trajectory remains unchanged. For the domestic market, overseas rate cuts do not affect domestic policy rhythms, and equities may see an emotional boost while the bond market is unlikely to follow [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalog Fed's Policy Adjustment and Outlook - The Fed's monetary policy framework adjustment focuses more on employment in the short - term. Powell pointed out that employment growth has slowed and the risk of employment decline has increased, putting employment issues before "recent inflation increases" [3]. - Although economic activity has slowed, the Fed is still optimistic and raised its economic growth forecast. The forecast for the annual real GDP growth rate in 2025 was raised from 1.4% to 1.6% [3]. - The Fed is more tolerant of inflation, believing that current inflation may be temporary. It raised the inflation forecast for 2026 while lowering the forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026. The 2026 PCE and core PCE were both raised by 0.2pct to 2.6%, and the 2026 federal funds rate forecast was lowered from 3.6% to 3.4% [4]. - Most Fed officials think there will be another 50BP rate cut this year. According to the dot plot, 9 out of 19 voting members believe the year - end benchmark interest rate should be in the 3.5% - 3.75% range, and 1 member thinks it should be in the 2.75% - 3% range [4]. Impact on Overseas and Domestic Markets - For overseas markets, US stocks and bonds have priced in the rate cut. The 25BP rate cut will not cause market fluctuations. The subsequent rate - cut rhythm is likely to be neutral and stable, and it is expected to cut rates by another 50BP this year. Commodities such as gold, silver, and copper may experience short - term shock and correction after the rate cut [6]. - For the domestic market, overseas rate cuts do not affect domestic policy rhythms. The scenario where overseas rate cuts open up domestic policy space will not happen. Under the current risk preference and liquidity environment, there is not much need for further rate cuts. Overseas rate cuts will not change the "stock - strong, bond - weak" trend. Equities may receive an emotional boost, while the bond market is unlikely to follow [6].