Xianhe(SH:603733) GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-09-18 11:56Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 28.62 CNY [6][12]. Core Views - In the short term, the price of pulp has confirmed its bottom, and recent increases in international prices may gradually transmit to paper prices, leading to improved profitability in the second half of the year. In the long term, as new production capacity ramps up, the overall profitability of the company is expected to increase [2][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,553 million CNY in 2023 to 16,517 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.4% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 664 million CNY in 2023 to 1,592 million CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 51.2% in 2024 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.94 CNY in 2023 to 2.26 CNY in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 9.1% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2027 [4]. Production and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 1,107,900 tons of pulp and paper, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.55% in production and 62.25% in sales volume [12]. - The self-produced pulp has reached a level that can effectively replace imported wood pulp, with the Guangxi base achieving a net profit of 117 million CNY in the first half of 2025 [12]. - The company expects profitability to improve as new production capacities are gradually released, particularly in the Hubei base, which is anticipated to turn profitable [12]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the second quarter of 2025 was 12.82%, a decrease of 4.57 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8%, down 3.84 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The company experienced slight increases in expense ratios, with financial expenses rising mainly due to increased interest costs [12].