Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-09-18 13:03Core Viewpoints - The report indicates an increase in interest rate cut expectations, contributing to a favorable macroeconomic environment [3] - The investment recommendation is to maintain an "overweight" rating for the industry, as the trend continues [3] Economic Overview - In August, China's export value increased by 4.4% year-on-year, while CPI decreased by 0.40% [5] - The U.S. CPI remained stable at 2.9% year-on-year, with core CPI also steady at 3.1% [5] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7, indicating a return to expansion [6] - The global manufacturing PMI increased to 50.9, marking the largest growth since June 2024 [6] Metal Market Insights Basic Metals - Industrial metal prices have generally risen, with the LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc showing weekly increases of 1.7%, 3.8%, 1.6%, and 3.4% respectively [3] - The domestic aluminum processing average operating rate increased by 0.4% to 62.1% [7] Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum industry maintained a production capacity of 44.085 million tons, with a weekly output of 845,500 tons [6][8] - Aluminum prices have risen to 21,050 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of 3,765 CNY/ton [6][8] Alumina - The operating capacity ratio of alumina to electrolytic aluminum increased to 2.21, indicating an expanding surplus [8] - Alumina prices decreased to 3,073 CNY/ton, with a profit margin reduction of 28.58% [9] Copper - Domestic electrolytic copper weekly output reached 238,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23,100 tons [10] - Global copper inventories rose to 681,400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 45,800 tons [10] Zinc - The domestic refined zinc weekly output was 131,700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.73% [11] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory reached 154,200 tons, continuing to rise and reaching a five-year high [11]