申万宏源证券晨会报告-20250919

Company Overview - The report highlights Xizi Clean Energy (西子洁能) as a leading company in the waste heat boiler sector, with a domestic market share exceeding 50% and a cumulative supply of over 450 units, adapting to major global turbine brands like GE and Siemens [10] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with foreign sales accounting for 13.82% of revenue in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.79% [10] Business Segments - Xizi Clean Energy is focusing on the development of molten salt energy storage technology, having participated in multiple demonstration projects, positioning itself as a pioneer in this field [10] - The company is also advancing in the nuclear power sector, with over 20 years of experience and licenses for manufacturing nuclear equipment, aiming to expand into third and fourth generation nuclear power and controlled nuclear fusion [10] - The report mentions the company's strategic investment in solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), which have high efficiency and versatility in fuel usage, enhancing its renewable energy ecosystem [10] Financial Projections - The report projects Xizi Clean Energy's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 443 million, 510 million, and 604 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28, 24, and 20 times [3] - A comparative analysis with similar companies indicates an average PE of 33 times for 2025, leading to an "Outperform" rating for Xizi Clean Energy [3] Industry Insights - The report discusses new national standards for polysilicon energy consumption, tightening the energy consumption limits significantly, which may lead to the forced shutdown or consolidation of high-energy-consuming production capacities [9][12] - The new standards are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacities, with a 12-month transition period for companies to comply [12] - The report suggests that polysilicon prices may remain strong due to the need for companies to achieve breakeven at lower operating rates, and it recommends monitoring companies like GCL-Poly Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd. [12]