Micron Technology(US:MU) Tebon Securities·2025-09-19 09:29Market Overview - The storage chip market is the second largest segment in the semiconductor industry, with a projected market size of $165.5 billion in 2024, accounting for 26% of the total semiconductor market of $630.5 billion[8] - In 2023, the storage chip market size was $92.3 billion, a year-on-year decline of 29%, while it is expected to grow by 79% to $165.5 billion in 2024[5][8] Industry Characteristics - The storage chip industry exhibits strong cyclical characteristics, typically operating on a 3-4 year cycle[8] - The market is dominated by 3-5 major players, with over 90% market share in both DRAM and NAND Flash segments[19] Historical Cycles - The storage industry has experienced three cycles since 2016, with the current cycle driven by AI infrastructure demand, differing from previous cycles that were more reliant on consumer electronics[14][20] - The first cycle (2016-2019) was driven by the transition to DDR4, while the second cycle (2020-2023) benefited from increased demand for laptops and smartphones during the pandemic[14][15] Future Outlook - The new cycle starting in 2024 is expected to be sustained by AI infrastructure, with significant demand for DDR5 and HBM memory chips[20] - According to WSTS, the storage chip market is projected to grow to $184.8 billion in 2025 and $214.8 billion in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 12% and 16% respectively[20] Company Performance - In Q2 2025, DRAM industry revenue reached $31.63 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.1%, while NAND Flash revenue from the top five brands grew by 22% to $14.67 billion[22][24] - Major companies like SK Hynix and Micron reported significant revenue growth, with SK Hynix's DRAM revenue increasing by 57.9% year-on-year in Q2 2025[26][30] Risks - The industry faces risks including market competition, macroeconomic fluctuations, and potential delays in research and development progress[36]