Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-19 11:47Report Overview - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily - Cost and Sentiment Double Blow, Prices Weakening - Date: September 19, 2025 - Analysts: Dai Yifan, Zhou Jiawei 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The ethylene glycol market currently has limited supply - demand drivers and is expected to oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400. Price breakthroughs depend on cost - side and macro - drivers. With short - term sentiment causing an over - decline, there is price support, and it is advisable to moderately sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price ranges for different polyester products are: ethylene glycol 4150 - 4450, PX 6300 - 7000, PTA 4400 - 5000, and bottle chips 5500 - 6100. The 20 - day rolling current volatilities are 9.62% for ethylene glycol, 11.03% for PX, 10.04% for PTA, and 7.59% for bottle chips. Their 3 - year historical percentile of current volatility are 2.5%, 7.8%, 7.2%, and 0.8% respectively [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about ethylene glycol price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4320 - 4420 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2601P4100) and sell call options (EG2601C4500) with a 50% hedging ratio at entry ranges of 20 - 30 and 50 - 80 respectively to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and purchasing based on orders, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4180 - 4250 to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (EG2601P4100) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol [2]. Core Contradiction of Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has limited fundamental drivers recently. Under the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation after October, it has become a concentrated short - position target for funds. The inventory accumulation expectation in the fourth quarter is advanced and magnified due to new capacity, putting pressure on valuation. With much of the inventory - accumulation expectation already priced in, chasing short positions is not recommended before its realization. The supply side has no significant incremental capacity, lacking supply elasticity. Considering low inventory, low valuation, and inelastic supply, the short - term downward space is limited, while upward price movement is more elastic with unexpected drivers. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400, and price breakthroughs depend on cost and macro - drivers [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The increase in thermal coal prices has compressed the profit of marginal coal - based production units to near the cost line [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - The 200,000 - ton ethylene glycol plant of Ningxia Kunpeng is planned to start trial production at the end of October, and its progress should be monitored. The new 800,000 - ton ethylene glycol capacity of Yulong is expected to be put into operation ahead of schedule at the end of September or early October, with an additional 50,000 - 60,000 tons of output in October [6]. Polyester Daily Data - The report provides price, price difference, processing fee, and sales rate data for various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and polyester chips on September 19, 2025, compared with previous days and weeks [8][9].