CATL(SZ:300750) China Post Securities·2025-09-20 07:58Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The capital expenditure of battery manufacturers is recovering, indicating a new round of expansion in lithium battery equipment [2] - From 2024 to 2030, the global demand for power batteries is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 25%, while energy storage batteries are projected to grow at a CAGR of about 29% [14][18] - The demand for global power and energy storage batteries is expected to increase from 209 GWh in 2020 to 5,154 GWh by 2030, with a CAGR of 26.5% from 2024 to 2030 [20] Summary by Sections 1.1 Capacity Utilization of CATL - CATL's capacity utilization has recovered to 90% in the first half of 2025, compared to 83%, 70%, and 76% in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [4][6] 1.2 Capital Expenditure of CATL - CATL's capital expenditure has shown a significant recovery since Q4 2024, with H1 2025 reaching 20.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46% [7][10] 1.4 Demand Side: Global Power Battery Growth - The global power battery shipment is expected to grow from 182 GWh in 2020 to 3,754 GWh by 2030, with a CAGR of 25.3% from 2024 to 2030 [17] 1.5 Equipment Space for CATL's Expansion - By the end of 2027, CATL is expected to have a capacity gap of approximately 300-600 GWh, corresponding to a value space of 40-70 billion yuan in the equipment sector [22] 1.6 Contract Liabilities of Major Lithium Battery Equipment Companies - The contract liabilities of major lithium battery equipment companies have shown a significant recovery in H1 2025, exceeding previous high points [29] 1.8 Profitability of Equipment Companies - The profitability of major lithium battery equipment companies is in a recovery phase, with net profit margins and gross profit margins showing signs of improvement [38] 1.9 Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies to focus on include Lianying Laser, Yinghe Technology, XianDao Intelligent, Haimeixing, Xianhui Technology, Honggong Technology, and MannsTech [41]