Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [6][13]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading express delivery service in Southeast Asia, following the expansion of Chinese e-commerce giants into international markets. The anticipated rapid establishment of new sites and higher-than-expected GMV growth will drive the company's global network development and volume growth, replicating its success in Southeast Asia to new markets such as Latin America and the Middle East [1][2]. Summary by Sections Southeast Asia Market - The e-commerce GMV in Southeast Asia is expected to reach approximately $306.26 billion in 2025, growing by 28.5% year-on-year, with an e-commerce penetration rate projected to rise to 24.9% [2]. - The company achieved a package volume of 3.23 billion items in Southeast Asia in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.9%, maintaining a market share of 32.8% [3]. - Revenue in Southeast Asia for H1 2025 was $1.97 billion, representing a 29.6% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted EBIT of $230 million, up 74.0% year-on-year [3]. New Markets - The company entered new markets in the Middle East and Latin America in 2022, with the GDP of these markets expected to reach $5.8 trillion by 2025. The e-commerce retail market in these regions is projected to grow by 23.6% year-on-year, reaching $163.55 billion [4]. - In H1 2025, the company’s package volume in new markets increased by 21.7% to 166 million items, with a market share of 6.2% [5]. - The company has established partnerships with international e-commerce platforms such as Temu, Shein, TikTok, AliExpress, and Shopee in new markets [5]. China Market - The company has seen a recovery in domestic profits due to price increases, with over 80% of the market share in China announcing price hikes. The industry is expected to experience a seasonal uptick in prices, supporting the company's profitability [12]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the company are $400 million, $710 million, and $950 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.3, 15.5, and 11.5 [13][15].
极兔速递-W（01519）：更新报告：电商出海，皇冠之珠