Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-21 08:44Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic copper prices are expected to be supported by factors such as downstream pre - holiday restocking expectations, tight raw material supply affecting refined copper production, the Fed's future continuous interest rate cut expectations, and China's favorable policies. The price range is expected to be between 79,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the domestic copper social inventory is expected to decline marginally [3][7]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts are expected this year and one next year, which will support market risk sentiment [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, new long positions can look for opportunities to enter, hold term positive spreads, and pay attention to opportunities to go long on volatility [7]. 3. Section Summaries Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper has rebounded. COMEX copper price volatility is around 9%, and Shanghai copper volatility has rebounded to around 8.2% [11]. - Term Spread: The term structure of Shanghai copper has strengthened, and the LME copper spot discount has narrowed. The spread between Shanghai copper 10 - 11 contracts has risen from par on September 12 to a premium of 60 yuan/ton on September 19 [13][15]. - Position: The positions of Shanghai copper, international copper, and LME copper have decreased, while the position of COMEX copper has increased. Shanghai copper's position has decreased by 4.35 lots to 479,000 lots [16]. - Capital and Industry Position: The net long position of CFTC non - commercial has increased from 27,200 lots on September 9 to 30,300 lots on September 16 [22]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, and the bonded - area copper premium has rebounded. The domestic copper spot premium has dropped from a premium of 85 yuan/ton on September 12 to 70 yuan/ton on September 19 [26]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with domestic social inventory and COMEX inventory both increasing. The global total inventory has increased from 644,800 tons on September 11 to 652,400 tons on September 18 [31]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded, and the Shanghai copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically high level [32]. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Imports have increased year - on - year, and processing fees have weakened marginally. In July 2025, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates were 2.5601 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45% [35]. - Recycled Copper: Imports have decreased year - on - year, and domestic production has increased slightly. In July, recycled copper imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and domestic recycled copper production was 99,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.81% [38]. - Blister Copper: Imports have increased, and processing fees are at a low level. In July, blister copper imports were 84,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.08% [49]. - Refined Copper: Production has increased more than expected, imports have increased, and the loss of copper spot imports has narrowed. In August, the production was 1.1715 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.59% [53]. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises in August weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes in August was at a historically low level, and the operating rate of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a moderately low level [56]. - Profit: The copper rod processing fee is at a historically low level, and the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. As of September 19, the processing fee for copper rods in the power industry in East China was 560 yuan/ton, lower than 570 yuan/ton on September 12 [61]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In August, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a historically high level, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a historically low level [62]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In August, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a moderately high level, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a moderately low level [64]. Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment is an important support. From January to July, the cumulative consumption was 9.2236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.06%, and the apparent consumption was 9.2812 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.28% [69]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: The growth rate of air - conditioner production has slightly decreased, and the production of new - energy vehicles is at a historically high level. In July, the domestic air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.01%, and in August, the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.391 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.38% [72].