VeriSilicon(SH:688521) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-21 08:39Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, Chip Origin Technology [7][6]. Core Views - Chip Origin Technology has over 20 years of experience in semiconductor IP and provides comprehensive chip customization services and semiconductor IP licensing. The company serves a diverse range of clients, including chip design firms, IDM manufacturers, system vendors, internet companies, and CSPs, across various sectors such as consumer electronics, IoT, data processing, automotive electronics, and industrial applications [6][17]. - The company is the largest domestic and eighth largest global design IP provider, with a robust product matrix that includes six categories of processor IP, smart pixel processing platforms, and over 1600 mixed-signal IPs [6][21]. - The SiPaaS model positions the company as a "shovel seller" in chip development, focusing on delivering IP products and design services without designing end products, which enhances the reusability of IP and meets the growing demand for outsourced chip design services [6][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for ASIC customization driven by domestic internet giants and the growing trend of AI services, with projected revenues of 2.753 billion, 6.104 billion, and 8.525 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 2,322 in 2024, 2,753 in 2025, 6,104 in 2026, and 8,525 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.7%, 18.6%, 121.7%, and 39.7% respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -601 million in 2024, -439 million in 2025, -158 million in 2026, and 347 million in 2027 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -1.20 yuan in 2024 to 0.66 yuan in 2027 [2]. Market Data - As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock is 173.00 yuan, with a market capitalization of 86.648 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 25.2 and a projected price-to-sales ratio of 33 for 2025, which is below the average of comparable companies [3][7]. Key Assumptions - The company anticipates a significant increase in ASIC customization orders from domestic system vendors, with an order backlog of approximately 3 billion yuan as of Q2 2025, indicating a high demand environment [8][50]. - Revenue from chip design services is expected to grow at a rate of 20% annually from 2025 to 2027, reflecting the increasing complexity and demand for customized chips [9]. - The semiconductor IP licensing business is projected to generate substantial revenue growth, driven by the ongoing demand for high-quality IP assets [9][38]. Industry Context - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a trend towards increased specialization and outsourcing, with a growing need for customized solutions to meet diverse application requirements [10][23]. - The report highlights the significant market concentration among leading IP providers, with the top four companies holding a 75% market share, indicating a competitive landscape where Chip Origin Technology is well-positioned to capture growth opportunities [6][10].