煤焦周度观点-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of coal and coke still provide support, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly. The pre - holiday restocking of raw materials has begun, and the current spot demand support is relatively strong. From a fundamental perspective, both supply and demand are marginally strong, and strong domestic expectations at the macro - level also provide support. Therefore, short - term valuations are likely to continue to fluctuate strongly [3][4][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - Supply: FW raw coal is 872.52 (+11.45), FW clean coal is 450.57 (+8.12); independent coking plants have a daily average of 66.72 (-0.04), and steel mills and coking enterprises have a daily average of 46.65 (+0.05) [7] - Demand: The hot metal output is 241.02 (+0.47) [7] - Inventory: MS total coal inventory increases by 39.6, mine raw coal decreases by 3.2, mine clean coal decreases by 21.7, independent coking increases by 56.9, steel mill coking decreases by 3.4, port increases by 11.1, and FW port increases by 3.7; MS total coke inventory increases by 8.9, steel mills increase by 11.4, independent coking decreases by 1.4, and ports decrease by 1.0 [7] - Profit: The profit of commercial coal is 421 (+17), and the average profit of coking enterprises is - 17 (-52) [7] - Warehouse Receipt: The warehouse receipt of Meng 5 in Tangshan is 1140, and the warehouse receipt of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke is 1568 [7] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply - Weekly: Data on 523 sample mine开工率, FW raw coal output, 523 sample mine daily average clean coal output, and FW clean coal output are presented in graphs [10][12][14] - Monthly: Data on coking bituminous coal output and coking clean coal output are presented in graphs [16] - Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance: Data on the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports and the total customs clearance volume of the three ports are presented in graphs [18][20][21] 3.2.2 Inventory - Pit - mouth: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 13.81 tons week - on - week to 185.96 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 10.27 tons week - on - week to 114.96 tons [28] - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 282.19 tons, an increase of 11.08 tons week - on - week [30] - Coking Plant: Data on coking coal inventory and available days of independent coking enterprises, and regional and capacity - segmented inventory and available days are presented in graphs [33][35][37] - Steel Mill: Data on coking coal inventory and available days of 247 steel enterprises and their segmented regional data are presented in graphs [38] 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Capacity Utilization: Data on the capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises are presented in graphs [41][43] - Output: Data on the daily average output of independent coking plants and steel enterprises are presented in graphs [45][47] 3.3.2 Inventory - Coking Plant: Data on the inventory of independent coking enterprises are presented in graphs [49] - Steel Mill: Data on the inventory, average available days, regional absolute inventory, and regional available days of steel mills are presented in graphs [50][52][53] - Full - sample Summary: Data on the total coke inventory and inventory of the full - sample are presented in graphs [55] 3.3.3 Demand - Data on the supply - demand gap between coke, daily average supply, daily average demand, and the daily average output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises are presented in graphs [57] 3.3.4 Profit - Data on the profit of coke futures contracts, average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, and the price of metallurgical coke are presented in graphs [61][62] 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.4.1 Coking Coal Futures - Futures quotes of coking coal 2601 and coking coal 2605, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are provided [65] 3.4.2 Coke Futures - Futures quotes of coke 2601 and coke 2605, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are provided [67] 3.4.3 Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - Data on the monthly spread of JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are presented in graphs [70] 3.4.4 Coal and Coke Spot - Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are presented in graphs [73] 3.4.5 Coal and Coke Basis - The basis has weakened as the futures price has strengthened with expectations [76]