Yunnan Aluminium (SZ:000807) EBSCN·2025-09-21 10:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 17.98% in the first half of 2025, reaching 29.078 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 9.88%, amounting to 2.768 billion yuan [1] - The mid-term dividend payout ratio is set at approximately 40.10%, with a cash dividend of 3.20 yuan per 10 shares [1] - The growth in performance is attributed to an increase in both volume and price of aluminum products, with production rising by 15.59% to 1.6132 million tons and an average price increase of 2.6% to 20,317.4 yuan per ton [1] - The decline in alumina prices, which fell by 44.7% to 3,170 yuan per ton, has also positively impacted the company's performance [1] - The domestic aluminum consumption is expected to grow by 1.46% in 2025, with significant contributions from sectors like new energy vehicles and air conditioning [2] - The company is actively expanding its resource acquisition and project development, including successful bids for exploration rights and the commissioning of new production lines [2] - The inclusion of electrolytic aluminum in the national carbon market is anticipated to create cost pressures for coal-fired aluminum production, potentially benefiting companies utilizing hydropower [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 29.078 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.768 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with respective growth rates of 17.98% and 9.88% [1] - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 6.188 billion yuan and 6.919 billion yuan, with a new forecast for 2027 at 7.590 billion yuan [3][10] Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts a PE ratio of 11 for 2025, decreasing to 9 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [3][12] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to improve to 15.2% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 9.4% [12] Market Outlook - The domestic aluminum consumption is projected to reach 54.3549 million tons in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.06% when excluding exports [2] - The report highlights the resilience of aluminum prices despite potential market fluctuations, driven by ongoing demand in key sectors [2]