Hengrui Pharma(SH:600276) Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-22 03:28Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The trading strategy for pure benzene is a sideways and weak trend for single - sided trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage. For benzene - ethylene, the single - sided trading is also expected to be sideways and weak, and the strategies for arbitrage and options are to wait and see. The price of pure benzene is expected to show a weak sideways movement, and benzene - ethylene may face inventory accumulation pressure and price decline in the future [5][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Pure Benzene - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, increasing the risk of employment decline and inflation rise, and the macro - sentiment is weak. Geopolitical tensions have led to high - level fluctuations in oil prices. The supply and demand of pure benzene have both increased, the price difference with naphtha and styrene has remained stable, and the spot price has slightly increased. The import arrival in East China has been lower than expected, and the port inventory has decreased. The inventory of Shandong refineries is low, and the price is firm, but the buying interest has declined in the second half of the week. The price difference between Shandong and East China has strengthened, and the regional arbitrage window remains closed [5][11]. - Some pure benzene maintenance devices have restarted, and some new devices have been put into production, increasing the overall supply. The start - up rate of hydrogenated benzene has increased, although the profit remains in a loss state with a small loss margin, and the overall supply is also expected to increase. The downstream profit of pure benzene continues to be in a loss state, the inventory of major downstream products has increased, and the downstream procurement is coming to an end [5][26][28]. Benzene - ethylene - The price of benzene - ethylene first rose and then fell this week. The unexpected shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical widened the price difference between East China and Shandong, and the north - south arbitrage window opened. The inventory in East China ports has increased, and the basis has slightly weakened. The inventory of ports and trading enterprises has increased month - on - month, while the inventory of production enterprises has decreased [7][35]. - Some benzene - ethylene devices have reduced their loads or shut down, and some have restarted, resulting in a slight decline in the weekly start - up rate. In the future, the start - up rate is expected to increase, and new devices are planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter, increasing the supply. The downstream 3S orders are insufficient, the market spot supply is abundant, and the enterprise inventory is generally high, so benzene - ethylene may face inventory accumulation pressure in the future [7][44]. 2. Core Logic Analysis No specific content in the document is marked as core logic analysis, so this part is skipped. 3. Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 Pure Benzene - Industrial Chain Prices: The prices of pure benzene in East China, styrene in East China, EPS, PS, and ABS are presented, showing the price trends over the years [52]. - External Prices: The prices of pure benzene CFR in China, FOB in South Korea, FOB in the United States, and FOB in Rotterdam are shown [55]. - Variety Price Differences: The price differences between pure benzene and naphtha (external market), styrene and pure benzene (external and internal markets) are presented [57]. - Regional Price Differences: The price differences between Shandong and East China, China and South Korea, and the United States and South Korea for pure benzene are shown [61]. - Industrial Chain Profits: The production profits of pure benzene, styrene ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, phenol, adipic acid, caprolactam, and aniline are presented [67][71]. - Start - up Rate: The start - up rates of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene are shown [74]. - Port Inventory: The port inventory of pure benzene is presented [75]. - Downstream Start - up: The start - up rates of styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid, which are downstream of pure benzene, are shown [79]. 3.2 Benzene - ethylene - Internal and External Prices: The spot price of benzene - ethylene in East China, CFR in China, FOB in South Korea, FOB in the United States, and FOB in Rotterdam are presented [83]. - External Price Differences: The price differences between internal and external markets of benzene - ethylene, and between China and the United States, South Korea, and Rotterdam are shown [86]. - Industrial Chain Profits: The production profits of benzene - ethylene ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, POSM, EPS, PS, and ABS are presented [88]. - Industrial Chain Start - up: The start - up rates of benzene - ethylene, PS, ABS, EPS, and phenol are shown [90][91]. - Port Inventory: The port inventories of benzene - ethylene in East China, South China, and overall are presented [93].