Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-22 05:41Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the anti - involution theme, exchange measures like position limits and fee hikes, and the delivery logic of the 2509 contract, some varieties with weak supply - demand fundamentals have seen continuous declines. In September, some varieties started to stabilize after losing the downward guidance of the 09 contract. The impact of the anti - involution theme is limited. With the National Day holiday approaching, it's advisable to control positions and operate cautiously [2][3][5]. - Anti - involution varieties are relatively strong, while the non - ferrous sector is bearish [3]. - The anti - involution is a long - term theme. After a sharp rise in July, trading volume and open interest of anti - involution varieties decreased due to position limits and fee hikes, and some varieties with weak industrial supply - demand in the real - world declined in mid - and late - August. After September 1st, these varieties showed signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The implementation of anti - involution policies in the industrial end is a key influencing factor. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle led to the outflow of profit - taking funds, causing a downward adjustment in the non - ferrous sector. For agricultural products, if the Sino - US tariff negotiation progresses smoothly, domestic agricultural products will face pressure [4]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1. Capital Flow - The total capital flow is - 5.637 billion yuan, with significant outflows in non - ferrous metals (- 3.211 billion yuan) and precious metals (- 224 million yuan), and inflows in soft commodities (239 million yuan) and oils and fats (123 million yuan) [8]. 3.2. Weekly Data of Black and Non - ferrous Metals - Data such as price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, open interest percentile, open interest change percentile, and annualized basis are provided for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties. For example, iron ore has a price percentile of 21.5%, a inventory percentile of 55.0%, etc. [8] 3.3. Weekly Data of Energy and Chemicals - Similar data is presented for energy and chemical varieties. For instance, fuel oil has a price percentile of 4.9%, a inventory percentile of 36.7%, etc. [10] 3.4. Weekly Data of Agricultural Products - Data for agricultural product varieties are shown, like soybean meal with a price percentile of 6.1%, a inventory percentile of 77.4%, etc. [11] 3.5. Capital Flow Diagrams - There are diagrams showing the capital flow of black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, other chemical varieties, energy varieties, oils and fats and oilseeds, agricultural and sideline products, and non - ferrous sectors [12][16][17][19][21][22][26]