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金沃股份(300984):轴承套圈龙头企业,绝缘轴套+丝杠业务助力新增长

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company, marking it as the first rating given [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading supplier of bearing rings and is expected to leverage its new products, such as insulated bearing sleeves and planetary roller screws, to drive new growth [1][3]. - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 1.146 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.98%, although net profit is under pressure [1][27]. - The insulated bearing sleeves are currently in the testing phase and are anticipated to open new market opportunities [2][58]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the bearing ring industry for many years and is a significant supplier to major global bearing companies, including Schaeffler, SKF, NSK, NTN, and JTEKT [14][54]. - The company plans to expand its screw business in 2024 and has initiated research and development for insulated bearing sleeves [14][58]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.146 billion yuan, with a net profit of 26.14 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 30.69% year-on-year [1][27]. - The gross margin is projected to slightly improve, with a comprehensive gross margin of 13.21% in 2024, increasing to 14.93% in the first half of 2025 [29][19]. Market Dynamics - The bearing industry is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with the company having room to increase its market share [2][53]. - The global bearing market is expected to grow steadily, with a projected market size of 260 billion dollars by 2030, driven by demand from emerging sectors such as electric vehicles and high-end equipment manufacturing [35][37]. Product Development - The company is focusing on the development of insulated bearing sleeves to prevent electrical corrosion, which is a significant failure mode in variable frequency motors [3][58]. - The planetary roller screw business is in the capacity construction phase, with plans to establish a production line capable of producing 500,000 sets annually by 2025 [3][19]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Revenue forecasts for the company are set at 1.349 billion yuan for 2025, 1.689 billion yuan for 2026, and 2.178 billion yuan for 2027, with net profits expected to rise significantly during this period [3][27].