VGT(SZ:300476) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-23 07:14Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for growth in the AI PCB market [7][6][4]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in AI PCB, with nearly half of its revenue coming from AI-related products. It achieved the highest global market share in AI and HPC product sales in Q1 2025, with revenue of 18.95 billion yuan [6][21]. - The global AI/HPC PCB market is expected to grow from approximately 6 billion USD in 2024 to 15 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 20.1% [46][47]. - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the structural expansion of the AI PCB market, with projected revenues of 20.7 billion yuan in 2025, 33.4 billion yuan in 2026, and 51.7 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 92.9%, 61.2%, and 55% respectively [5][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2024, 2025H1, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 10.731 billion yuan, 9.031 billion yuan, 20.705 billion yuan, 33.379 billion yuan, and 51.722 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 35.3%, 86.0%, 92.9%, 61.2%, and 55.0% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.154 billion yuan in 2024, 2.143 billion yuan in 2025H1, 5.518 billion yuan in 2025E, 9.939 billion yuan in 2026E, and 15.573 billion yuan in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 72.0%, 366.9%, 378.0%, 80.1%, and 56.7% respectively [5]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 22.7% in 2024 to 42.6% in 2026 and beyond, driven by product structure optimization and manufacturing efficiency [5][8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company specializes in high-end HDI and high-multilayer PCBs, serving major clients such as NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, and Tesla. It has established a significant technological lead, with a 2-3 year advantage over competitors in the AI PCB sector [6][10][21]. - The company has achieved large-scale production capabilities for 6-layer 24-layer HDI and is developing 10-layer 30-layer HDI technology, which positions it well to meet the increasing demand for high-density interconnects [6][10]. Growth Drivers - The expansion of AI computing demand is a key driver, with significant capital investments in AI infrastructure expected to boost the demand for high-end PCBs [45][46]. - The report highlights that the company’s operational efficiency and cost management will benefit from economies of scale as production capacity increases [9][8]. Valuation and Upside Potential - The report notes that the company's stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 49.3 for 2025 and 27.4 for 2026, compared to an average PE of 35.3 for comparable companies, indicating a potential upside of 29% [7][6].