Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-23 09:32Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China's wet season is ending, and the furnace - starting rate in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. The overall industrial silicon start - up rate is expected to peak, and supply pressure will gradually ease [4]. - Demand side: Organic silicon demand is stable, recycled aluminum alloy maintains rigid procurement, and polysilicon demand is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Overall: If supply decreases and polysilicon demand improves, the industrial silicon market may reverse at the price bottom. The details and implementation of polysilicon industry integration measures are key variables [4][6]. Polysilicon - Supply side: In October, polysilicon production is expected to be flat month - on - month, with a loose supply pattern and increasing futures warehouse receipts, which may suppress the market [10]. - Demand side: The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is slowing down, and procurement demand is limited. The industry's high - inventory situation persists, and the de - stocking cycle has not started [10]. - Overall: In the short term, if there is no strong policy by the end of November, the polysilicon futures may be under pressure. In the long term, its trend depends on policy strength [10]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8925 yuan/ton, down 0.28% daily and up 0.11% weekly. The trading volume and open interest have different degrees of change [12]. - The price difference between different contracts and the number of warehouse receipts also show certain trends [13]. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have different weekly changes, with some showing increases and some decreases [19]. - The prices of mid - stream and downstream products such as industrial silicon powder, trichlorosilane, and polysilicon also have corresponding fluctuations [19]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis of different grades of industrial silicon in the East China region shows seasonal characteristics. The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 49,963 hands, with different changes in each delivery warehouse [26][31]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50,260 yuan/ton, down 1.43% daily and 6.35% weekly. The trading volume and open interest also change [33]. - The price difference between different contracts and the number of warehouse receipts have their own trends [33]. Spot Data - The prices of different types of polysilicon and related products in the photovoltaic industry, such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, have different degrees of change [39]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis rate of the polysilicon main contract shows seasonal characteristics. The basis of the main contract is 2170 yuan/ton, with a significant daily increase. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7870 hands [44][45][48].