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豫园股份(600655):豫园股份公司深度研究:核心商圈“再造”,品牌出海贡献增量

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 6.83 CNY per share based on a projected PE of 30x for 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a representative of the commercialization of Eastern aesthetic brands, focusing on diverse consumer sectors, with a significant emphasis on jewelry and cultural dining [2][15]. - The expansion of the commercial area, particularly the second and third phases of the Yuyuan project, is expected to significantly enhance the company's rental and management income [3][29]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion of its dining brands, with the first overseas store of Songhe Lou set to open in London, which is anticipated to exceed growth expectations [3][41]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates primarily in three business segments: consumption industry operations (76.1% of revenue), commercial comprehensive operations and property services (17.2%), and real estate development and sales (6.7%) [2][15]. - Jewelry accounts for 88% of the consumption industry operations revenue, with additional segments including dining, health, and alcohol [2][19]. Investment Logic - The company is undergoing significant changes in its commercial area, with the second and third phases of the Yuyuan project expected to double the area of the first phase, enhancing rental income [3][34]. - The dining business is expanding internationally, with a focus on traditional brands, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [3][41]. Financial Performance - The jewelry segment has faced challenges but is expected to recover due to store adjustments and product innovation, with a revenue of 12.79 billion CNY in the first half of 2025 [4][22]. - The real estate segment is gradually improving as inventory is cleared, with a revenue increase of 4.84% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4][22]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 467.21 billion CNY, 489.30 billion CNY, and 508.30 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits expected to rise significantly [5][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from a cultural export boom, leveraging its rich IP resources [5][54]. Brand and Cultural Assets - The company has a robust portfolio of traditional brands and cultural heritage, which supports its commercial activities and enhances brand visibility [54][56]. - The introduction of new brands like "Dongjia Gold" aims to tap into the high-end market, further diversifying the company's offerings [52][54].