Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-24 02:13Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire report were provided. Core Views - The macro - economic situation is complex. In the domestic market, economic growth is slowing, but policy support is in place. The stock market is strong, while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the fluctuation center is around 7.10, and there is no sign of a trend appreciation for now. The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policies, and excessive bets on loose policies may bring risks [4]. - The stock index has support below due to pre - holiday risk - aversion, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The bond market is expected to remain volatile, and the current market lacks positive drivers [8][9]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunities of the 12 - contract [11]. - Precious metals may be bullish in the long - term, but the short - term upward momentum is weakening. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday [12][16]. - Copper is expected to remain stable and may fluctuate slightly above 80,000 yuan per ton. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly [17][18]. - Zinc is expected to move downward slowly. Nickel and stainless steel short - positions can be stopped and reduced at low prices, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - guidance [20][21]. - Tin is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities. Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday. Lead is expected to be cautiously bullish [26][29]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. Iron ore is expected to trade based on fundamentals and fluctuate. Coking coal and coke are anti - falling, and it is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [31][33][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and their downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. - Crude oil is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate in a range. PTA - PX prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to try long positions cautiously. Methanol is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [43][46][48]. - PP's downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices. PE is expected to fluctuate [51][54]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a weak state, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - Rubber is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - Pulp is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. Logs are expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [70][71]. - Propylene investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74]. Summary by Directory Macro - The US manufacturing and service PMI declined in September, and the eurozone manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range. The Fed's interest - rate cut path has differences, and the market is concerned about the PCE data [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1133 on the previous trading day, up 15 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.1057, up 49 basis points. The RMB is expected to fluctuate around 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated yesterday, and the large - cap index was relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6][8]. Bond - The bond market fell yesterday, and it is recommended to use a volatile trading idea and buy long positions at intervals [9]. Shipping - The shipping index (European line) futures price fell back. The spot price of some shipping companies increased, while others decreased. It is expected to fluctuate, and the 12 - contract can be considered for long positions [10][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose and then fell on Tuesday. The upward momentum weakened. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday. The medium - and long - term may be bullish, and the short - term may be adjusted [12][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price remained stable at around 80,000 yuan per ton, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly above this level [17]. - Aluminum: The price is affected by macro - policies and fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction [18]. - Alumina: The supply is in an oversupply state, and the price is expected to be weak [19]. - Zinc: The price is expected to move downward slowly, and it is recommended to buy put options or sell call options [20][21]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to stop and reduce short positions at low prices [21][22]. - Tin: The price is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [24]. - Carbonate Lithium: The price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24][25]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The price is expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday [26][27]. - Lead: The price is expected to be cautiously bullish [29]. Black Metals - Steel: The supply of crude steel has shrunk, and the demand has improved slightly. The inventory is still at a high level, and the price is expected to fluctuate [31]. - Iron Ore: The supply has recovered, and the demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to fluctuate [33]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The price is anti - falling. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [35]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: The cost provides support, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The price rebounded, but it is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - LPG: The price rebounded with emotions and crude oil, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [41][43]. - PTA - PX: The price declined due to pessimistic emotions. It is recommended to try long positions cautiously [44][46]. - Methanol: It is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [48]. - PP: The downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices [51]. - PE: The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The price fell, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - Rubber: It is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - Pulp: It is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [70]. - Logs: The price is expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [71]. - Propylene: Investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74].