油脂价格区间预测

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term international oil and fat supply pattern is disrupted by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and soybean oil, and the strong uncertainty of US energy policy. The oil and fat market is mainly in shock adjustment. However, the policy is only valid until the end of October. With signs of production reduction in Malaysian palm oil and uncertain Sino - US and Sino - Canadian policies, there is an expectation of tight supply of domestic oils and fats from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a rebound in the far - month market. The short - term disk may maintain a weak shock. Strategies should be based on a shock mindset, not chasing short positions. Opportunities for P1 - 5 and OI1 - 5 positive spreads can be considered, as well as opportunities for the spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil to widen [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Price Forecast: The monthly price range forecast for soybean oil is 8000 - 8400, with a current volatility of 11.5% and a historical percentile of 2.4% in 3 years; for rapeseed oil, it is 9700 - 10300, with a current volatility of 10.4% and a historical percentile of 0.1% in 3 years; for palm oil, it is 8900 - 9500, with a current volatility of 20.2% and a historical percentile of 24.1% in 3 years [2]. - Hedging Strategies: - Traders with high oil and fat inventory: To prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 8300 - 8400 [2]. - Refineries with low procurement inventory: To prevent rising procurement costs due to price increases, they can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) at present, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8000 - 8100 [2]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices: They can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) according to their situation, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an advisable entry range of 8200 - 8300 [2]. Market Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The arrival of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season in China may boost downstream stocking [4]. - Negative Factors: - On September 23, the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1062.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars from the previous day; the CIF price was 1092.5 US dollars, down 22.5 US dollars; the import cost was 9314.23 yuan, down 191.26 yuan, hitting a new low in nearly one and a half months. The import profit was - 454.23 yuan/ton, down 208.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China was still high, and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills across the country has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, with this week's crushing volume expected to be around 2.4 million tons [7]. - As of September 23, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1.227 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from 1.203 million tons in the same period last week [7]. - To suppress the risk of peso depreciation, the Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on major agricultural products from Monday until October 31 or until sales reach 7 billion US dollars, including 26% for soybeans, 24% for soybean oil and soybean meal, and 9.5% for corn and wheat [7]. Market Price Data - Palm Oil: - Palm oil 01 contract price is 9054 yuan/ton, down 3.27%; palm oil 05 contract price is 8856 yuan/ton, down 3.26%; palm oil 09 contract price is 8480 yuan/ton, down 3.66%. The BMD palm oil main contract price is 4350 ringgit/ton, up 0.16%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou is 8970 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the basis is - 194 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan [8][9]. - Soybean Oil: - Soybean oil 01 contract price is 8086 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 05 contract price is 7848 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean oil 09 contract price is 7790 yuan/ton, down 1.66%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract price is 49.63 cents/pound, down 1.9%. The price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong is 8150 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [15]. - Rapeseed Oil: - Rapeseed oil 01 contract price is 9996 yuan/ton, down 147 yuan; rapeseed oil 05 contract price is 9467 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan; rapeseed oil 09 contract price is 9400 yuan/ton, down 141 yuan. The ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract price is 616.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1 Canadian dollar. The price of rapeseed oil in East China is 10050 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the basis is 54 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [18].