Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-24 11:27Report Overview - The report is the "South China Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily" dated September 24, 2025, by the South China New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently in a state of internal oscillation, with no significant changes in the fundamentals. Concerns about the stability of ore supply are increasing, while the cobalt price has upward potential, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. Nickel iron prices remain firm, and the stainless steel market shows a wait - and - see attitude before the holiday [3] Key Points by Category Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.88% and a historical percentile of 0.1% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - Inventory Management: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory devaluation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - Procurement Management: For future production procurement needs, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2] Stainless Steel - Inventory Management: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory devaluation, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - Procurement Management: For future production procurement needs, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3] Market Situation Analysis Core Contradictions - In the nickel market, the Indonesian energy department's sanctions on mining companies have increased concerns about the stability of ore supply. In the new energy sector, the expected extension of the cobalt export ban in Congo may drive up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. Nickel iron prices are firm, and the stainless steel market shows a wait - and - see attitude [3] Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, and the stainless steel has been destocking for several weeks. Also, the Indonesian forestry working group has taken over part of the nickel mining area [5] Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless steel import tariffs, the implementation of South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel plates, weak stainless steel spot transactions [5] Market Data Nickel Disk - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,450 yuan/ton, up 1% from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 103.70% to 107,755 lots, and the open interest increased by 125.11% to 85,526 lots [5] Stainless Steel Disk - The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,895 yuan/ton, with little change. The trading volume decreased by 12.00% to 122,330 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.80% to 116,704 lots [5] Inventory Data - Domestic nickel social inventory is 41,484 tons, an increase of 429 tons; LME nickel inventory is 230,586 tons, an increase of 132 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 897,200 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [6] Industry News - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]