沪铜日评：海外铜矿生产扰动推升铜价-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the Fed's hawkish future interest - rate cut path, disruptions in overseas copper mines are leading to an expected supply - demand imbalance, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be more likely to rise than fall [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,960, up 40 from the previous day; trading volume was 51,727 hands, down 11,472; open interest was 172,444 hands, down 850; inventory was 27,419 tons, down 308; the basis was 85, down 5; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,045, up 35 [2] - London Copper: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,320, up 326.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was - 31.37, up 41.74; the 3 - 15 month contract spread was - 67.22, up 93.07; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.7481, down 0.25 [2] - COMEX Copper: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.8275, up 0.18 from the previous day; the total inventory was 318,229, down 56 [2] 3.2 Important Information - A fatal mudslide occurred at the Grasberg mine of Freeport McMoRan's Indonesian subsidiary. Freeport expects to resume production to pre - accident levels by 2027 at the earliest, and the copper and gold production in 2026 may decline by about 35% compared to pre - accident estimates [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - Supply: The accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8 may reduce the 2026 copper and gold production by about 35%. There are disruptions in the production of multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative and rising China copper concentrate import index, a tight supply - demand expectation for copper concentrates and scrap copper, a decline in processing fees for refined copper or anode plates, and an increase in the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October [2] - Demand: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season is leading to a recovery in demand in some copper processing industries [2] - Inventory: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week, while the COMEX copper inventory increased [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to take long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support levels around 77,000 - 79,000 and resistance levels around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper; support levels around 9,600 - 9,900 and resistance levels around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper; support levels around 4.3 - 4.5 and resistance levels around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2]