南华期货玉米、淀粉产业链日报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - New - season supply pressure drives down corn prices. After the new - grain offer opened high, it has been falling, and there is still downward pressure on prices after large - scale listing [1] - Currently, the amount of corn on the market is limited, the decline of spot prices is small. The spot market shows the characteristics of continuous decline of damp grain and firm dry grain, and the near - month contracts of the futures market are resistant to decline [1] - The current basis is at a relatively high level, and there is a risk of decline as new grain is listed in large quantities [1] - CBOT corn is consolidating at a low level, digesting the pressure of the expected bumper harvest and waiting for further guidance from the supply side [1] 3. Summaries according to Related Catalogues 3.1 Corn & Starch Futures Prices | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 23 | 2025 - 09 - 24 | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn 11 | 2158 | 2164 | 6 | 0.28% | | Corn 01 | 2134 | 2136 | 2 | 0.09% | | Corn 03 | 2148 | 2146 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Corn 05 | 2204 | 2202 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Corn 07 | 2220 | 2215 | - 5 | - 0.23% | | Corn 09 | 2229 | 2229 | 0 | 0.00% | | Corn Starch 11 | 2447 | 2469 | 22 | 0.90% | | Corn Starch 01 | 2452 | 2462 | 10 | 0.41% | | Corn Starch 03 | 2457 | 2464 | 7 | 0.28% | | Corn Starch 05 | 2539 | 2544 | 5 | 0.20% | | Corn Starch 07 | 2544 | 2549 | 5 | 0.20% | | Corn Starch 09 | 2572 | 2591 | 19 | 0.74% | | Wheat Average Price | 2442 | 2444 | 2 | 0.08% | [2] 3.2利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The market is looking forward to the later purchase and reserve policy of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation, but it takes time and there is uncertainty [3] - In August, the import of corn remained at a low level, and the substitution pressure was small [3] - The supply of old - season grain sources is tight, and it takes time for new - season grain to supplement. Shandong deep - processing enterprises generally raised prices to promote purchases [3] 3.3利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary oversupply of supply puts pressure on prices [3] - The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China have been lowered, transportation is difficult, and local enterprises mainly lower prices [3] 3.4 Corn & Starch Spot Prices and Main - continuous Basis | Corn | Price & Basis | Today's Change | Corn Starch | Price & Basis | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2300 | 0 | Shandong | 2780 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2440 | 0 | Jilin | 2570 | 0 | | Harbin | 2170 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2520 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main - continuous Basis | 136 | - 6 | Shandong Main - continuous Basis | 311 | - 22 | [12] 3.5 US Corn Prices and Import Profits | | Price | Daily Change | Increase Rate | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main - continuous | 424 | - 1.75 | - 0.41% | | | COBT Soybean Main - continuous | 1008.5 | - 4 | - 0.4% | | | CBOT Wheat Main - continuous | 519.5 | - 1.25 | - 0.24% | | | US Gulf Duty - paid Price | 2146.62 | 13.18 | 0.62% | 293.38 | | US West Duty - paid Price | 2004.48 | 13.24 | 0.66% | 435.52 | [24]