Freeport-McMoRan(US:FCX) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-25 02:55Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The economic situation in the third quarter is complex, with a slowdown in economic growth, policy counter - cyclical adjustments, and structural interactions between the financial market and the macro - fundamentals. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed may restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation data [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.15 against the US dollar this week. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile. It is advisable to buy long positions at intervals and control positions [7]. - The shipping index (European line) futures may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, and low - buying opportunities can be considered [9]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and hold light positions during the National Day holiday [12]. - The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. It is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [14]. - The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction. The alumina price may be weak in the short term, and the cast - aluminum alloy price may fluctuate strongly [15][16][17]. - The zinc price is expected to move downward slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [19]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to fluctuate narrowly [19]. - The tin price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [22]. - The lithium - carbonate futures price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [23]. - It is recommended that investors be cautious when participating in the industrial - silicon and poly - silicon markets during the National Day holiday [25]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [27]. - The steel price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the downward resistance is smaller than the upward resistance [28]. - The iron - ore price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday [31]. - It is not recommended to short coal and coke in the black - commodity market. Arbitrage can focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coal and coke [33]. - It is recommended to try to go long on the silicon - iron 11 - contract at 5550 and the silicon - manganese 01 - contract at 5800 [35]. - The crude - oil price is expected to continue the pattern of weak rebound and then decline. The core contradiction lies in the game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risk support [39]. - The LPG price is expected to fluctuate weakly [41]. - The PTA - PX price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to try to go long cautiously or expand the TA - SC spread [44]. - The MEG - bottle - chip price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [47]. - It is recommended to reduce long positions in methanol and continue to hold short - put options [49]. - The PP price has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to device changes and opportunities to go long on dips [52]. - The PE price is expected to continue to fluctuate [55]. - The pure - benzene price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to expand the pure - benzene - styrene spread on dips [57][59]. - The low - sulfur fuel - oil price has few short - term contradictions and will follow cost fluctuations [60]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It may have the last chance to rise this year [62]. - The rubber price is expected to be bullish in the short term and neutral in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to go long on RU2601 and pay attention to the spread [66][67]. - The soda - ash price is expected to be volatile, with a long - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [69]. - The glass price is expected to be volatile, with a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [71]. - The caustic - soda price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the spot rhythm and downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [73]. - The pulp price is expected to stop falling. It is recommended to go long on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options on the far - month contract [74]. - The log price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and a covered - put strategy [75][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: Pay attention to US economic data. The Fed may restart the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation data [1][2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.15 against the US dollar this week. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises adopt a rolling foreign - exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [4]. - Stock Index: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6]. - Bond: The bond market is expected to be volatile. It is advisable to buy long positions at intervals and control positions [7]. - Shipping Index (European Line) Futures: The shipping index (European line) futures may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term, and low - buying opportunities can be considered [9]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold & Silver: Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may be adjusted in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and hold light positions during the National Day holiday. London gold should pay attention to the support around 3700 and the resistance at 3800; London silver has resistance in the 44.5 - 45 area and support at 43.5 and 43 [12]. Base Metals - Copper: The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. It is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [14]. - Aluminum & Alumina & Cast - Aluminum Alloy: The aluminum price may fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction. The alumina price may be weak in the short term, and the cast - aluminum alloy price may fluctuate strongly [15][16][17]. - Zinc: The zinc price is expected to move downward slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [19]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to fluctuate narrowly [19]. - Tin: The tin price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait for long - entry opportunities [22]. - Lead: The lead price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [27]. Energy & Chemicals - Crude Oil: The crude - oil price is expected to continue the pattern of weak rebound and then decline. The core contradiction lies in the game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risk support [39]. - LPG: The LPG price is expected to fluctuate weakly [41]. - PTA - PX: The PTA - PX price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to try to go long cautiously or expand the TA - SC spread [44]. - MEG - Bottle - Chip: The MEG - bottle - chip price has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [47]. - Methanol: It is recommended to reduce long positions in methanol and continue to hold short - put options [49]. - PP: The PP price has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to device changes and opportunities to go long on dips [52]. - PE: The PE price is expected to continue to fluctuate [55]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: The pure - benzene price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to expand the pure - benzene - styrene spread on dips [57][59]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel - oil price has few short - term contradictions and will follow cost fluctuations [60]. - Asphalt: The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It may have the last chance to rise this year [62]. - Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber: The rubber price is expected to be bullish in the short term and neutral in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to go long on RU2601 and pay attention to the spread [66][67]. Building Materials - Soda - Ash: The soda - ash price is expected to be volatile, with a long - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [69]. - Glass: The glass price is expected to be volatile, with a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [71]. - Caustic - Soda: The caustic - soda price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the spot rhythm and downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [73]. Others - Pulp: The pulp price is expected to stop falling. It is recommended to go long on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options on the far - month contract [74]. - Log: The log price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to use a grid strategy and a covered - put strategy [75][77].