铜：GRASBERG不可抗力资金兴趣是关键

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Grasberg Block Cave mud collapse accident of Freeport - McMoRan Inc. in Indonesia has a significant impact on the global copper market. It will lead to a reduction in copper production and sales in 2025 - 2026, further lower the global copper concentrate balance sheet, and affect the price trend of copper. Attention should be paid to the capital's allocation interest in the copper market [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Incident Introduction - On the evening of September 24, Freeport - McMoRan Inc. declared force majeure on the mud collapse accident at its large mine Grasberg Block Cave in Indonesia, and lowered the copper and gold sales expectations for the fourth quarter of this year and the whole of next year. The LME copper price rose before the night - session opening and hit a new high of $10,320/ton in closing price this year. The weighted position of SHFE copper increased by more than 60,000 lots, and the weighted index rose to a maximum of 82,880 points [1] Importance of the Mine - The accident occurred on September 8. The mine is basically in a shutdown state, and the accident investigation is expected to be completed by the end of the year. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's second - largest copper concentrate mine. Freeport - McMoRan Inc. currently holds 48.8% of the shares, and the Indonesian company holds 51.2%. The annual production capacity of the mine is 800,000 tons. In 2024, the copper sales of this mine increased to about 760,000 tons, accounting for about 40% of FCX's annual output and about 3.3% of the world's copper concentrate output in 2024 [1] Impact of the Accident on Mine Sales - In 2023, Indonesia banned the export of copper concentrates. FCX's project of building a smelter for the Grasberg copper mine has been tortuous. The Manyar smelter was put into production in May 2025 and produced output in July. The Gresik smelter had an oxygen - making accident and shut down in summer. As of the first quarter of this year, there was a large amount of concentrate inventory, which affected the production of the Grasberg copper mine. The copper output of this mine in the first half of the year was only 297,000 tons. In 2025, Freeport's production and sales activities in Indonesia were not smooth. The original sales forecast for 2025 was 162.5 million pounds (about 737,000 tons), but it was later lowered to 150 million pounds (about 680,000 tons). After the accident, the production target of the Grasberg copper mine was lowered. The overall sales target of 445 million pounds (about 200,000 tons) in the fourth quarter of Indonesia's Freeport could not be completed. The 2026 production target was directly lowered from 170 million pounds to 110 million pounds (from 770,000 tons to 498,000 tons), and the actual copper production in Indonesia's Freeport this year may only be about 500,000 tons [2][3] Global Copper Concentrate Balance Sheet - In 2025, the accidents of major mines around the world were very serious. The annual copper concentrate supply loss rate may exceed 5% due to the force majeure of Freeport in Indonesia. The ICSG may lower the expected increase of global copper concentrates in 2025 from nearly 500,000 tons to 100,000 - ton level, and the increase in 2026 will also be affected. The specific production resumption rhythm of the 330,000 - ton - level Cobre Panama copper mine of First Quantum becomes crucial. The annual processing fee negotiation in 2026 will be in a passive situation again [5] Price Impact - The copper price rose at night, fully digesting short - term supply - side events. Technically, LME copper has the potential to break through the chart upwards, but attention should be paid to the capital's allocation interest in the copper market. The short - term position of SHFE copper weighted increased sharply, but the total position was not significant compared with the previous performance when the price broke through the 80,000 - point mark. The copper market is still vigilant about the fluctuations of macro - economic indicators and sensitive to the actual consumption strength [5]