铜矿大量级减产支撑铜价突破上行

Reporting Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a bullish view on copper prices and recommend long positions at low prices; suggest looking into buying the near - term SHFE copper contract while selling the far - term contract [11][12] Core Viewpoints - The shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine will exacerbate the global copper market supply tightness, providing upward rebound momentum for copper prices. Despite the slowdown in copper demand growth, with the arrival of the peak demand season and positive macro - economic expectations, copper prices are expected to rise [4][5][11] Summary by Directory Event Review - On the evening of September 24, copper prices rebounded significantly, with LME copper breaking through US$10,000 per ton. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remains shut down, and its production in 2026 is estimated to decrease by 35% compared to the previous forecast of 1.7bn lb (approx. 0.77mn t), impacting production by around 0.27mn t [4][5] Market Outlook Supply Side - Recent disruptions in copper mine supply occurred as the underground tunnels of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia were partially blocked. Mining operations are suspended, and production is expected to fully recover only by 2027. The shutdown will exacerbate the tightness in the copper concentrate market, with copper ore spot processing fees likely remaining low and potentially declining further. Blister copper processing fees are also falling, leading to possible production cuts at some scrap - copper - using smelters, and a significant month - over - month decline in electrolytic copper production in September [7][8][13] Demand Side - The growth rate of copper demand has slowed down due to the decline in terminal demand from home appliances and other sectors, and the pace of inventory reduction has slowed in the past two months, constraining copper price increases in Q3 2025. However, with the arrival of the peak demand season in September and October, downstream buyers' willingness to stock up has increased, and copper inventories have begun to decline this week. If the decline continues, copper prices will have significant upward elasticity [9][10][14] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts at its September meeting, and overall macro - economic expectations are positive. Coupled with frequent supply disruptions and the significant impact of the Grasberg copper mine shutdown, a bullish view on copper prices is maintained. In terms of arbitrage, the decline in refined copper production in September coinciding with a seasonal increase in demand may tighten the copper supply - demand balance again, and low copper inventories are likely to persist, making it a good opportunity for a positive spread in SHFE copper contracts [11][12][14]