全球第二大铜矿停产，铜价大涨

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Last night, copper prices soared, with both LME copper and SHFE copper rising over 3%. The share price of US mining giant Freeport - McMoRan tumbled. Today, copper prices maintained a strong trend, and SHFE copper's open interest increased significantly. Due to a mudslide at its Indonesian subsidiary's Grasberg mine, the world's second - largest copper mine, production has been suspended. Freeport expects the mine to return to pre - accident production levels by 2027 at the earliest, and copper and gold production in 2026 is projected to drop by 35%. In the short term, LME copper broke through the annual high, and SHFE copper neared it, showing strong upward momentum [5]. - Aluminum: Last night, aluminum prices rose following the sharp increase in copper prices. Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, and open interest decreased. At the macro level, the upward breakthrough of copper prices drove up the non - ferrous sector. At the industrial level, with the peak season and pre - holiday stocking demand, electrolytic aluminum social inventories declined on Thursday. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [6]. - Nickel: Last night, nickel prices rose due to the sharp increase in copper prices. Today, nickel prices maintained a strong trend, and open interest increased. At the macro level, the non - ferrous market recovered. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements still suppresses nickel prices. In the short term, as the non - ferrous sector as a whole rises, nickel prices are rising with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the September high [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: During the morning trading session, SHFE copper rose by over 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot market's trading sentiment was weak. The export window opening may promote smelters' export plans, reducing holders' willingness to sell. Downstream copper consumers had few new orders and weak pre - holiday stocking. Since the mudslide at the Grasberg mine on September 8, it has been shut down for nearly two weeks. The company has activated force majeure clauses. Indonesia Freeport's copper production in 2026 may decline by 35% compared to previous estimates, and this incident may cause a 2.2% reduction in global copper supply in the future [9]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: Multiple charts related to copper are presented, including basis, domestic visible inventory, overseas exchange inventory, and others, which reflect the price and inventory trends of copper [11][13][18]. - Aluminum: Charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory, and alumina inventory are provided, showing the price and inventory conditions of aluminum [23][25][27]. - Nickel: Charts including nickel basis, LME inventory, and domestic warehouse receipt inventory are included, presenting the price and inventory trends of nickel [35][36][42].