铜：矿山供应扰动加剧，铜价再次上行

Report Title - Copper: Intensified Disturbances in Mine Supply, Copper Prices Rising Again [2][5] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - With increased disturbances in copper mine supply and a favorable macro - atmosphere, copper prices are expected to maintain a strong performance. As long as inventory does not increase significantly, the probability of the upward trend in copper prices continuing is higher [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Freeport Updates Operational Information of Grasberg Copper Mine in Indonesia and Lowers Future Production Guidance - On September 8, a large amount of wet materials gushed out in one of the five production blocks of the Block Cave in Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, causing blockages in some areas of the mine and the disappearance of 7 workers. Mining operations were temporarily stopped [5] - On September 24, Freeport announced that 2 bodies were found on September 20, and the search for the remaining 5 missing workers continued. An investigation into the cause of the accident will be completed by the end of 2025 [5] - Freeport expects a 4% reduction in the comprehensive copper sales volume in Q3 2025 compared to the July 2025 forecast. The impact on future production plans may lead to significant delays in Q4 2025 and 2026, with production expected to return to pre - accident levels in 2027 [6] - Some unaffected mines may restart in mid - Q4 2025, and the GBC mine will start phased restart and ramping up in H1 2026. The Q4 2025 copper production will be significantly lower than the original expectation of 200,000 tons. The 2026 production may be about 35% lower than the pre - accident estimate, a reduction of about 270,000 tons [6] - Considering the previous production guidance, Freeport's copper production in 2025 is expected to decrease by about 260,000 tons compared to 2024, and the 2026 production will only slightly increase instead of the previously expected increase of 140,000 tons. After the announcement, copper prices soared, with LME copper rising over 3% on September 24 [3][7] 2. Freeport's Production Adjustment Significantly Intensifies the Global Copper Mine Supply Tightness - Since this year, the global copper raw material supply has remained tight. In Q1, Indonesia's suspension of copper concentrate exports and Freeport's production cut in Indonesia reduced international copper concentrate supply, pushing the copper concentrate smelting fee into negative territory. In Q2, Zijin Mining's Kamoa copper mine in Congo reduced its annual production by about 150,000 tons due to a mine earthquake. In late July, Codelco's El Teniente copper mine in Chile had a temporary shutdown due to a mine accident [12] - With Freeport's significant downward adjustment of future production expectations, the expected growth rate of global copper supply has been continuously revised down. Currently, the estimated increase in copper mine production in 2025 is only 50,000 - 150,000 tons [12] - In 2025, domestic copper smelting capacity continues to grow, and overseas copper smelting is in a peak period of commissioning. There will also be incremental demand from new capacity commissioning and increased operating rates of existing capacity in 2026, further intensifying the supply tightness [12] - The spot TC of copper concentrate, which reflects the supply - demand relationship of copper mines, remains below - $40/ton, highlighting the supply tightness [12] 3. Against the Background of Supply Disturbances and a Favorable Macro - Atmosphere, Copper Prices May Remain Strong - Recently, the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver have reached new highs, indicating a favorable macro - atmosphere. Due to the strong financial attributes of copper and precious metals, and the relative stagnation of copper prices, there is a certain demand for copper price to catch up [15] - Catalyzed by Freeport's significant downward adjustment of production guidance, copper prices are expected to maintain a strong performance. As long as inventory does not increase significantly, the probability of the upward trend in copper prices continuing is higher [3][15]