TF Securities(SH:601162) Tianfeng Securities·2025-09-26 07:13Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is currently facing adjustments due to the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on fund fee adjustments. The selling pressure from funds is testing the承接 capacity of allocation investors. However, the bond market does not need to be overly pessimistic as the fund redemption pressure has not spread to form a negative feedback loop. The 10Y Treasury bond rate is unlikely to reach the annual high of 1.90%, which can serve as a stable anchor for bond asset pricing. Meanwhile, medium - term credit bonds are facing a process of re - finding the peak after ultra - long bonds [5][30][31]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Recent Bond Market Adjustment: Fund Selling Pressure Tests the承接 Capacity of Allocation Investors - Market Reaction to the Draft: After the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on fund fee adjustments on September 5, the selling pressure from trading investors increased, testing the承接 capacity of allocation investors. The bond market declined continuously from Tuesday this week and rebounded strongly on Thursday afternoon. On September 25, the yield of the active 30Y Treasury bond reached a high of 2.1425%, approaching the annual high [1][8]. - Expected Redemption by Institutions: Insurance, bank self - operation, and wealth management may redeem some bond funds. Bank self - operation may increase its direct participation in the bond market, leaving only medium - and long - term pure bond funds with strong active management capabilities. For insurance, the upcoming implementation of the new accounting standards in 2026 and the draft for soliciting opinions reduce its willingness to allocate funds, but the redemption pressure is controllable. Bank wealth management is expected to have a more cautious and long - term allocation style for funds, and the short - term holding demand for medium - and short - term bond funds may shift to ETFs and inter - bank certificate of deposit funds [2][9][10]. - Impact on Bond Types: The change in the bond market investor structure means the repricing of various bond types, especially the bonds preferred by public funds (secondary and perpetual bonds, policy - financial bonds, and ultra - long bonds). From the perspective of institutional behavior, public funds have been continuously selling these bonds since September 5, and the selling continued from the 22nd to the 24th of this month, although the intensity has eased. In terms of interest rate changes, the bonds preferred by public funds have led the decline. As of September 24, the interest rates of 3 - 5Y secondary and perpetual bonds have increased by more than 20BP compared to September 5, and the interest rates of various maturities of China Development Bank bonds have also increased more than those of Treasury bonds and local government bonds [3][4][24]. 2. Medium - Term Credit Bonds are Facing a Process of Re - finding the Peak after Ultra - long Bonds - Market Outlook: When allocation investors are absent, it is difficult to be bullish on the bond market, but there is no need to be bearish either as the negative feedback loop has not formed. The 10Y Treasury bond rate is unlikely to reach the annual high of 1.90%, which can stabilize the pricing of bond assets [5][30][31]. - Ultra - long Bonds: The supply - demand mismatch problem of ultra - long bonds persists. The key is to observe the stabilizing behavior of large banks to determine the "desirable range." The continuous progress of ultra - long bond issuance has put pressure on the interest rate risk of large banks, but as market - makers, they have the obligation to maintain market price stability and may increase their承接 capacity during market adjustments, as seen on September 25 [5][32]. - Medium - Term Credit Bonds: The buying power of 3 - 5Y credit bonds, especially 5Y secondary and perpetual bonds, is gradually weakening. The allocation investors' desirable entry points may be significantly raised. The main buying forces of credit bonds, funds and wealth management, are expected to be affected. Funds may shrink in scale due to the adjustment of redemption fees, and wealth management will face full - scale valuation rectification in the fourth quarter, reducing its acceptance of high - volatility bonds. Insurance is also gradually withdrawing from the secondary and perpetual bond market. In this adjustment process, 1 - 2Y bonds are expected to stabilize earlier than 3 - 5Y bonds [6][32].